Week 11 NFL Betting Preview: Chiefs/Chargers

The FTN team uses Adam Pfeifer's Week 11 Game by Game Fantasy Breakdown to identify some of the key player props to bet on in this week's Chiefs/Chargers game.

The Kansas City Chiefs will travel to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in a huge matchup for the AFC playoff standings. The Chiefs are sitting atop the AFC West at 7-2 and looking to make a run for the number one seed in the AFC to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers Prop Bets Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs “ Patrick Mahomes just continues to crush. He is the MVP frontrunner at the moment. Mahomes is coming off a four-touchdown, 331-yard game against Jacksonville, giving him four-straight 300-yard outings. He has finished as the QB2, QB2, QB4, QB6 and QB2 over the last five games, and although the Chargers did a great job against Mahomes back in Week 2, he is obviously still a top-five play. You would like to see Kansas City’s pass-catchers healthy, as this unit is pretty banged-up at the moment. Still, Mahomes will have enough talent around him ahead of a matchup with a Chargers team that is coughing up the sixth-most points per drive (2.24), while teams are scoring points on 42.4% of drives against Los Angeles this season, the fifth-highest rate in football.”

Pick: Mahomes Over 286.5 Passing Yards (-117, BetRivers) Patrick Mahomes is having another incredible season, most likely the MVP of the league at this point. Mahomes is on fire and making it look easy. In a game, which should be relatively close I expect Mahomes to lead the way with well over 287 yards passing. Even with a few receivers out with injury, the Chiefs recent addition of Kadarius Toney should be able to step in and have a big game for them.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers “Last Sunday night started off well for Justin Herbert , as he drove down the field and threw a touchdown pass against San Francisco. However, he ultimately finished the game with just 196 yards with that one touchdown and an interception, as he continues to struggle to post ceiling weeks with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams sidelined. It is possible that one or both wideouts are back this week, which would be amazing for Herbert and give him an opportunity to return to top-five status. He should be throwing the ball a lot here, as offenses are averaging 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs this season.”

Pick: Herbert Over 276.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings) The Los Angeles Chargers are finally getting healthy on offense with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams expected to play this week. This is a huge upgrade for Justin Herbert . When healthy, the Chargers have one of the best offenses in the league and Herbert can put up huge numbers. Against a Chiefs defense that stuffs the run, expect Herbert to throw a ton which should get him well over this yardage prop.

Kadarius Toney, WR, Kansas City Chiefs “There is a lot to sort out here. JuJu Smith-Schuster is dealing with a concussion, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman did not practice to start the week. We saw Kadarius Toney remind everyone just how talented he is last week, hauling in 4-of-5 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown, while adding two carries for 33 yards. Toney played 44% of the snaps and was schemed touches, which is very exciting. If Hardman can’t return, Toney would likely benefit the most…”

Pick: Toney Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-117, BetRivers) Patrick Mahomes will have to turn to Kadarius Toney this game. Toney will be the No. 1WR and should see the second-most targets behind Travis Kelce . Toney is extremely explosive and that will be on show Sunday night as he will need to pick up the slack for injured Chiefs WR’s Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith Schuster. Toney should see single coverage as the Chargers will focus most of their attention on All-Pro TE Kelce.

Week 11 NFL Betting Preview: Chiefs/Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers Prop Bets

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

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