NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/23)

NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 Points

(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nikola Jokic has been on a strong run as of late, and now he gets a matchup against the Blazers, who have struggled in defending big men as well, ranking 26th in points allowed to opposing frontcourts players. Jokic is averaging north of 30 points per game over his last five games, and 27.7 over his last 10 games. 

Damian Lillard Over 4.5 3s Made

(+112, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Big line here for Damian Lillard, but at plus-money it catches my eye, especially considering Lillard projects for 5.65 3s in my model. Denver is 21% is 3-point percentage allowed, and Dame is averaging 5.2 3s per game over his last 10. 

Bobby Portis Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds

(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bobby Portis is averaging over 23 points + rebounds per game this season and has gone over this number in four of his last six games. My model projects Portis for 13.5 points and 9.4 rebounds.