MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/8)
Josh Gross
If your juices are still flowing from World Baseball Classic, you’re not alone. Luckily, Opening Day is right around the corner. I wrote up a couple of futures bets last week on the hitting side, so today we’ll break down a futures bet on the bump.
Hunter Greene Over 181.5 Strikeouts
(-110, FanDuel)
The Cincinnati Reds announced they’re giving the nod to the second-year phenom Hunter Greene on Opening Day against the Pirates. Greene’s rookie season got off to a bumpy start, as he posted a 6.19 ERA and a 6.07 FIP in his first 10 starts. Despite walking over 10% of batters and surrendering 15 long balls in that stretch, it was clear the 23-year-old was elite when it came to striking batters out. Greene punched-out 29% of hitters in those first 10 outings and that number shot up as the season went on and he improved his control. Not only did his K’s increase but he cut his walks significantly in the second half of the season, allowing him to pitch deeper into games and rack up even more strikeouts. Clearly, the Reds expect him to continue that late-season success this year, and I do too.
Greene throws his 4-seam fastball over 50% of the time, and last season it averaged 99 MPH – ranking him in the 99th percentile in terms of fastball velocity. The Reds rookie struck out 28.9% of batters with his fastball and 34.3% with his slider, his second most used pitch. Overall, Greene’s 30.9% K% ranked 7th-best in the majors. The righty filled up the zone, as he increased his K% all the way to 37% in the second half and cut his walks by almost half. His 14.5% swinging-strike percentage ranked 9th best in the majors, ahead of aces Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon. The flamethrower struck out a total of 164 batters in just 125.2 innings (24 starts) last season for the Redlegs
Most projection systems have Greene finishing with 200 strikeouts in 160 innings, so the over on 171.5 is a safe play. This number is listed at 190 at most shops so, as always, shop around for the best number using FTN’s Prop Shop. I played this last week at 178.5 and it’s already moved to 181.5. I don’t usually suggest chasing a number, but it’s still seven strikeouts lower than DraftKings’ current number and I see value up to 182.
You can follow me on Twitter for more free bets, as I’ll be writing up free picks a few times a week again this season. You can find all my bets in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you’re not subscribed, join now and get 20% off using promo code DREAM.
