Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Mikal Bridges o29.5 Points + Assists
(-106, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Let’s just put it in stone at this point. A few days ago, I had Mikal Bridges in this article for Game 1 of this series, and he got there on points alone despite losing out on a few minutes to blowout. He was extremely efficient shooting the ball, which we can’t always count on, but we should expect more volume and more opportunity if he plays more minutes. My model has him for 33 points in 38 minutes tonight, while also adding nearly four assists.
Domantas Sabonis o6.5 Assists
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let’s ignore recency bias here and focus on Domantas Sabonis’ continued production in the assists department. He is averaging north of seven assists on the year but had just two in the opening game of this series. My model projects Sabonis for 8.61 assists, as he should continue to play massive minutes in a pace-up spot against the Warriors. This should be a great scoring environment once again with a 240 game total.
Tyrese Maxey o2.5 Three-Pointers
(-105, DraftKings)
Tyrese Maxey hit three 3s in Game 1 of this series on five attempts, which like Bridges is very good efficiency that might not be sustainable. But also like Bridges, Maxey missed out on a few minutes of playing time due to blowout. The key here is the defensive scheme the Nets deploy. Almost every time Joel Embiid got the ball last game, another off-ball Nets defender was there to double him from his weak side. If they continue this strategy, this will force the ball to the wings like Maxey and James Harden for open shots.
Stephen Curry o5.5 Assists
(-135, Caesars Sportsbook)
Like Sabonis, Stephen Curry also struggled in the assists department in Game 1, but he also averaged north of six assists per game in the regular season, and I cannot stress how good of an environment this is from an offensive standpoint. A 1.5-point spread and 240 total screams offensive numbers, and there are still plenty of buy-low spots here. My model has Curry projected for 7.17 assists tonight. However, if you are uneasy on that prop, you can always play his o35.5 Points + Assists, as Curry has the ability to go for 35+ points alone on any given night.
