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Chris Meaney
Wednesday is one of the most interesting NBA playoff slates in recent memory. We have only three games, but the list of injured superstars is going to open up so many opportunities for us. Ja Morant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyler Herro are the major ones unlikely to play. We have half a dozen other stars — such as Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, LeBron James and Anthony Davis — all listed as questionable too. I assume all of those guys do end up playing, but the situations are definitely worth keeping an eye on.
The minutes, points and field goal attempts of those high-usage injured stars have to go somewhere, and figuring out where is how we are going to win some NBA best bets for the day.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets Today
Jaren Jackson Over Points 22.5
Ja Morant is a game-time decision, but nothing coming out of Memphis sounds good for him to play. Even if he does, it will not be at the usual level we expect from him. Ja missed 11 games since the beginning of March, and Jaren Jackson is the man who has picked up the slack in those absences. He has had 21 or more points in eight of the 11 games without Morant. That does not even count the 31 he dropped on the Lakers last game, because technically Ja played some of that one. His minutes were a tad limited this year too, but he saw 37 in that last game. He averaged 18.8 points in just 28 minutes during the regular season, so if his minutes remain more than 25% above his seasonal average, that would mean his points total should also go up by about that same 25%, which would have him at 23 or more. Even if Ja was playing, the minutes bump alone would make this interesting. Take the added field goal attempts bump from not having Morant, and it makes it one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Khris Middleton Over 23.5 Points
Khris Middleton has always been the guy who steps up to fill the scoring void when Giannis is out. If you just use this year as your guideline, the numbers skew. Remember that Middleton missed a lot of time this year and was brought along slowly, even when he did first return. If you look back at the three previous seasons, Middleton topped 21 points in 17 of 25 games without Giannis. He had 33 last game, and the numbers are sustainable. With Giannis out, you see bumps in minutes, field goal attempts, free throw attempts and overall points from Middleton vs. his season average in each of the last four years. Giannis is doubtful tonight, so expect another big scoring performance from Middleton to fill the void.
Gabe Vincent Over 9.5 Points
The loss of Tyler Herro in Game 1 is a huge blow to the Miami Heat. Kyle Lowry is not even close to 100% either. That opens up the path for Gabe Vincent to play 30 minutes or more. In 12 games without Herro this season, Vincent averaged 33 minutes and 15.8 points. He scored in double digits in 10 of those 12 games, averaging over seven 3-point field goal attempts per game. The Bucks are a team that you can beat from behind the arc. We usually prefer shooters over guys who score in the paint against them. Vincent played 40 minutes in back-to-back games against the Bucks in January with Herro sidelined. He scored 27 and 28 points in those two games, so I would not even argue if you wanted to ladder his points with 15-plus and 20-plus.
