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Chris Meaney
There is only one game in the NBA playoffs Wednesday, but it’s a good one between the Celtics and 76ers. Word is Joel Embiid is going to be back. It can’t hurt to be up 1-0 in a series and be welcoming back the newly crowned MVP. Embiid coming back does change a few things around on both sides of the ball.
The Celtics may need to play bigger, which could lead to more minutes for a guy like Robert Williams. I originally had him as an under for rebounds, but that’s not one I like as much anymore. The other major change is to the pace. Embiid playing slows the 76ers way down. I liked the over when he was originally expected to be out but would be on the under now. With all that said, here are my three favorite bets.
Best NBA 3-Point Prop Bet
Tyrese Maxey Over 2.5 3-pointers
Tyrese Maxey projects for 3.5 3-pointers in our model. He had a bad shooting game last time out, but here is the silver lining. Maxey only hit a pair of 3-pointers last game, but he did fire up nine of them. Maxey averaged 2.7 made 3-pointers per game on 6.2 attempts during the regular season. If he gets back to shooting around the 43% he did each of the last two seasons, he should be able to knock down three or four of them.
Best NBA Total Bet
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers Under 217.5
I was originally going to bet the over on this game, but that changed with Embiid playing. The 76ers played faster when he was not in, which meant more points scored and more given up. That would point to an over like we cashed in Game 1. With Embiid, the pace of play slows to a crawl, which is why the three games with 220+ totals they played during the regular season all ended under. Our FTN Data number has the Philly pace of play tonight as one of the slowest we have seen this season, so I’m not expecting 120 points apiece for these teams. They will both be lucky to get to 110.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Jayson Tatum Under 9.5
Jayson Tatum at 9.5 feels a little bit too high. Yes, he has topped this number in two straight games, but he also averaged under 9 rebounds per game during the regular season. His matchup is not easy against guys like P.J. Tucker and Tobias Harris. Tatum played 44 minutes last game, which is more than 10% above where his minutes average for the first series was. We have him projected under 9, so this is one of the bigger edges on a rebounding prop.
