NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 2

The haters said it couldn’t be done. But I avoided the editor’s ax and am back with a Week 2 edition of my Stone-Cold Survivor League Locks.

Buffalo Bills

-9.5 vs. Raiders

There are two ways to look at the Week 2 Survivor slate. One, you can be a total nerd like Aaron Schatz, calculate per-play efficiencies, regress those back to your preseason projections and evaluate teams by a statistically sound estimate of their true talent levels. Or two, you can be cool and ask yourself which team wants it more? Josh Allen was totally embarrassed on Monday night — or would have been if he were Dak Prescott and put up the same statistics — throwing three picks, fumbling twice and losing to Zach Wilson. Zach Wilson! If I were Verizon, I would push Allen into a hedge and pull his endorsement deal for that sin. And if I were Oikos Greek Yogurt, I would pull Prescott’s, too. 143 yards and no touchdowns on Sunday night? A real quarterback would have beaten the Giants by 76.

What I’m trying to say is the Bills need a win. And judging by the game recap I looked up five minutes ago, the Raiders may not? Apparently, they beat the Broncos 17-16 on Sunday. I can’t say I watched that. I had Patriots-Eagles, Chargers-Dolphins, Seahawks-Rams and RedZone in my Sunday Ticket four-box on YouTube TV. Whatever, take the Bills.

New York Giants

-5.5 at Cardinals

After that aforementioned 40-0 Cowboys beatdown — that would have been 76-0 with a better quarterback than Dak Prescott — the Giants rank second among my “Need a Win in Week 2” teams. Fortunately, they rank first in the even-more-critical Week 2 Revenge Game rankings:

Isaiah Simmons, Giants at Cardinals – The Cardinals traded Simmons two weeks before the start of the season. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to find a house after the school year starts in New York City? In this real estate market??
Mike Gesicki, Patriots vs. Dolphins – Mike McDaniel couldn’t find snaps for a tight end with 4.5 speed in an offense that only cares about speed? Durham Smythe ran a 4.8 and played 100% of snaps in Week 1. What a joke.
Isaiah Wynn, Dolphins at Patriots – “Win with Wynn” Wednesdays were cancelled indefinitely.
Jawaan Taylor, Chiefs at Jaguars – Cry to the refs all you want, Doug Pederson. He’s going to false start even harder this Sunday.
Greg Van Roten, Raiders at Bills – More upset at the Panthers for breaking up the “Moton-Van Roten” dynamic duo back in 2020. His superhero spec script had real potential, but he’s missed the window now that Hollywood is on strike.

Simmons may have more interception return yards than Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs has passing yards this Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys

-9.5 at Jets

It isn’t ideal to lose your almost 40-year-old, four-time MVP quarterback on the fourth snap of his first season with your team. But Jets head coach Robert Saleh likely compounded that misfortune when he declared Zach Wilson the team’s starter. Wilson’s 18.6% inaccurate pass percentage was so bad in 2022 that it made Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Marcus Mariota look like a bunch of Robin Hoods (the Katniss Everdeen of the boomers). The night is darkest before dawn, indeed.

Fortunately, Saleh may also have stumbled into his best chance at some explosive pass plays in Week 1, which are actually just Breece Hall handoffs. Hall played a modest 17 snaps in his return from a 2022 ACL tear. But if he can ramp that up to 30 snaps and hit on a 30-plus-yard rushing attempt on at least a third of them, the Jets should be able to compete in some games this season — specifically, the ones when their defense and special teams outscore their opponents’ points from Wilson pick-sixes.

Sadly for the Jets, but happily for Survivor pickers, Week 2 won’t be one of those weeks. Based on what I saw from the Cowboys defense last Sunday night, I would set the over/under on Wilson pick-sixes at 9.5 this weekend — which coincidentally is the same number as the point spread. The Cowboys are an easy Survivor selection — even with Prescott as their quarterback. And now that I talk this through, Saleh may be a genius for naming Wilson his starter. Tom Brady is too old and too immobile to survive the Jets’ run of fearsome defensive opponents in the Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos and Eagles before a Week 6 bye. Throw Wilson to those wolves and pray that Hall and the Jets defense can win one of the next five games by themselves. Then, Brady can sign during the bye week, rip through the Giants, Chargers and Raiders the next three weeks, and return the Jets to a .500 record. The famous former Bostonion should be New York’s favorite son by mid-November.

Philadelphia Eagles

-6 vs. Vikings

The Bucs wanted more respect for their Week 1 win over the Vikings? Well, they aren’t going to get it. The Vikings may have been 13-4 in 2022, but their minus-3 point differential made Jeff Fisher blush. When you play the Vikings this year, there are two possible outcomes. You are embarrassed, or you avoid embarrassment. The Bucs avoided embarrassment in Week 1. Have a cookie, Baker Mayfield. Eagles by 1,000.

New Orleans Saints

-3 at Panthers

While Zach Wilson might as well be a rookie — if not a rookie in NFL Europe — I technically avoided rookie quarterback opponents in my first four Survivor recommendations. That’s bad form, and I will apologize with the seppuku of this Panthers fan’s heart. Bryce Young is short. Young threw two interceptions into the middle of the field in Week 1. Are we sure Young can see over top of a 6-foot-5 Carl Granderson, 6-foot-4 Nathan Shepherd and a 6-foot-4 Cameron Jordan on the Saints defensive line? I’ll take the over on 10 Saints batted passes but under on 10 Panthers points on Monday night.

Scott’s Pick: Buffalo Bills
Scott’s Record: 1-0