NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s start with the best conference in college basketball, the Big 12. Last season ended a three-year streak of Big 12 representation in the NCAA Championship game, including consecutive championships from Baylor (2020-2021) and Kansas (2021-2022). This year, the conference will add four new teams in Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF. With 14 total teams, will we see a change with the top teams, or will the dominance of national powerhouses such as Kansas, Texas and Baylor be magnified further?
Here’s our betting preview for the Houston Cougars.
2023-2024 Houston Cougars Betting Preview
Conference: Big 12
Head Coach: Kelvin Sampson (10th season)
2022-2023 Record: 33-4 (17-1)
ATS: 19-18
O/U: 18-19
Projected Starters: G Jamal Shead; G LJ Cryer; G Emanuel Sharp; G Damian Dunn; F J’Wan Roberts
It’s been a heck of a 10-year run for Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson. He has built a powerhouse team based on defensive intensity and relentless rebounding. The Cougars have won 27 or more games in five of the last six seasons and now must adjust to life in the best conference in the country, the Big 12.
Houston has a solid nucleus returning with Jamal Shead (10.5 PPG), Emanuel Sharp (5.9 PPG) and J’Wan Roberts (10 PPG, 7.7 RPG), while adding LJ Cryer (Baylor) and Damian Dunn (Temple). The Cougars dominated the AAC with elite defense and rebounding, but will those advantages continue against elite conference competition?
Key Player: J’Wan Roberts
With Jarace Walker getting drafted as an NBA lottery pick, Roberts is now the main interior presence. The Cougars did secure two four-star big men recruits in 6-foot-7 Joseph Tugler and 6-foot-10 Jacob McFarland, but Roberts will need to be the main anchor in the middle. He was relentless on the boards, registering 18 games with eight or more rebounds. He also tallied eight double-doubles and six games with four or more blocks. Roberts gets a huge spotlight in the Big 12, needing to produce and stay on the floor against the likes of Kansas, Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech.
Projection: The Cougars are listed third overall in KenPom and sixth overall per BartTorvik. I disagree with both of those rankings. This is a Houston team embracing a massive increase in competition by joining the Big 12. While the Cougars were an insane 32-4 the past two years within the AAC, they blew a 15-point second-half lead at home to Alabama last December with a head-scratching home loss to Temple in January. Their only real competition was Memphis, who always provided problems, including a 75-65 defeat in the AAC Tournament last season. If you can rebound with the Cougars, you can beat them, because they can go long droughts without scoring. “Bully Ball” won’t work in the Big 12, I see them finishing outside the top-3 teams this season.
How I’m Betting Houston: On the surface, Houston looked just as strong as ever last season. However, there was a huge dropoff ATS, as the Cougars fell from 25-13 ATS (eighth-best in the nation) to just 19-18 last season. Their games are no longer an automatic play on the under either, finishing roughly 50/50 on the total. Sampson is a great coach, but Houston was just 9-9 at home ATS after going 11-6 two years ago. This team will fight and be competitive in every game, but I am mainly targeting the Cougars as a live home conference underdog this season.
