NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s start with the best conference in college basketball, the Big 12. Last season ended a three-year streak of Big 12 representation in the NCAA Championship game, including consecutive championships from Baylor (2020-2021) and Kansas (2021-2022). This year, the conference will add four new teams in Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF. With 14 total teams, will we see a change with the top teams, or will the dominance of national powerhouses such as Kansas, Texas and Baylor be magnified further?
Let’s take a look at our betting preview for the Baylor Bears.
2023-2024 Baylor Bears Betting Preview
Conference: Big 12
Head Coach: Scott Drew (21st season)
2022-2023 Record: 23-11(11-7)
ATS: 17-16-1
O/U: 18-16
Projected Starters: G RayJ Dennis; G Jayden Nunn; G Ja’Kobe Walter; F Jalen Bridges; C Josh Ojianwuna (4.2 PPG)
Something was missing from last year’s Baylor team.
Despite having a devastating guard trio of Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer and sensational freshman Keyontae George, the Bears finished tied for third in the Big 12, were eliminated in the first round of the conference tournament and lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to Creighton. Baylor really struggled away from home, with their best Big 12 road win coming at TCU against a Horned Frogs team without Eddie Lampkin or Mike Miles. This was a team that returned two of their top-3 leading scorers, while adding George and West Virginia transfer Jalen Bridges. Despite entering the season inside the top 10 nationally, the Bears fell below their recent Final Four level.
Scott Drew looks to reload after losing George and Flagler to the NBA draft and Cryer to the transfer portal (Houston). The Bears bring in the 12th-best recruiting class including five-star shooting guard Ja’Kobe Walter and four-star point guard Miro Little. Drew also added two high-level transfers in RayJ Dennis (Toledo) and Jayden Nunn (VCU). There is certainly talent on this team, but Drew will need to do a better job on chemistry than last season.
Key Player: Jalen Bridges
Baylor needs a strong interior presence, especially to anchor rebounds in their no-middle defense. Bridges was solid last season, posting career-highs in points (10.3), rebounds (5.6) and blocks (1.0) per game. With two perimeter transfers and limited 6-foot-10 center Josh Ojianwuna, Bridges needs to elevate all phases of his game to keep Baylor inside the Big 12 top 3.
Projection: My instinct is that the sum of the parts will be greater than Baylor’s whole, at least in the beginning of the season. RayJ Dennis is an elite scorer but now transfers up from the MAC to the best conference in college basketball. Nunn’s defense is a huge addition, and Walter is the offensive bellwether. They were one of the most even top-20 teams in the nation for betting purposes, hovering around .500 in ATS and over/unders in every subcategory.
How I’m Betting Baylor: Given their inexperience playing as a team, Baylor will be one of my favorite fades in the non-conference part of the schedule. Last year, they went just 6-6 ATS in their first 12 games, despite carrying a 10-2 record in those games. That was with Flagler and Cryer on the court. With a relatively new roster this season, I’ll bank on a slow adjustment to Drew’s system again.
