NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s start with the best conference in college basketball, the Big 12. Last season ended a three-year streak of Big 12 representation in the NCAA Championship game, including consecutive championships from Baylor (2020-2021) and Kansas (2021-2022). This year, the conference will add four new teams in Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF. With 14 total teams, will we see a change with the top teams, or will the dominance of national powerhouses such as Kansas, Texas and Baylor be magnified further?
Let’s take a look at our betting preview for the Texas Longhorns.
2023-2024 Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
Conference: Big 12
Head Coach: Rodney Terry (1st full season)
2022-2023 Record: 29-9 (12-6)
ATS: 19-19
O/U: 18-17-3
Projected Starters: G Tyrese Hunter; G Max Abmas; F Dillon Mitchell; F Dylan Disu; F Kadin Shedrick
It was an incredible season for Texas that somewhat bonded after the early-season dismissal of head coach Chris Beard. Rodney Terry did an incredible job, guiding the Longhorns to 29 wins, a Big 12 conference tournament title and an Elite Eight appearance. Terry saved a season that was on the precipice of disaster. But now comes an even bigger challenge, maintaining that success with a new roster.
Texas brings back only 43.1% of their minutes from last season but landed one of the best scorers in college basketball, Oral Roberts transfer Max Abmas. He will pair with Tyrese Hunter to form one of the best backcourts in the nation. Abmas is joined by 6-foot-11 Kadin Shedrick from Virginia and versatile guard Ithiel Horton from UCF to form the foundation of the eighth-best transfer class, per 247Sports. Those transfers need to carry the Longhorns, whose only impact freshman is four-star shooting guard Chris Johnson. It’s quite a difference from Beard’s third-best freshman class from last season.
One of last year’s freshmen, Dillon Mitchell, will be counted on for major production as a sophomore. The 6-foot-8 forward struggled to make a consistent impact, scoring two points or fewer in 12 of their last 14 games.
Key Player: Dylan Disu
The loss of Dylan Disu to a foot injury in their Sweet 16 win against Xavier was probably the difference in a Final Four trip. Disu averaged just 8.8 PPG and 4.4 RPG during the season but posted 28 points and 10 rebounds in their second-round victory over Penn State. If Texas gets Disu from the end of last season, this is again a legitimate Final Four contender. With their elite backcourt solidified, Disu can take this Longhorns team to even higher places than last season.
Projection: I’m always leery of backing inexperienced coaches after they exceeded expectations the prior year. I was very profitable fading Mark Turgeon, Hubert Davis and Juwan Howard after their fantastic seasons. However, the transfer portal allows teams to maintain a high floor, which is how I see Texas this season. There are always questions about scorers that transfer up, but Abmas has proven he can score against anyone. Shedrick brings a solid and disciplined presence to the post, and returning a start point guard in Hunter is always an advantage. It’s hard to see Texas not battling to dethrone Kansas again, even in Terry’s first full season as head coach.
How I’m Betting Texas: This is one of the biggest “wait-and-see” teams in all of college basketball. Despite a dominant season, the Longhorns were only 19-19 ATS, despite covering seven of their last nine contests. It’s worth noting that Longhorns games hit the under in seven of their last nine also, which is a trend to watch later in the season. It’s hard to have a predetermination on this Texas team with new talent coming off such a unique season. My instinct says to fade them early, but I need to see how they assimilate during the non-conference schedule.
