NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s start with the best conference in college basketball, the Big 12. Last season ended a three-year streak of Big 12 representation in the NCAA Championship game, including consecutive championships from Baylor (2020-2021) and Kansas (2021-2022). This year, the conference will add four new teams in Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF. With 14 total teams, will we see a change with the top teams, or will the dominance of national powerhouses such as Kansas, Texas and Baylor be magnified further?
Let’s take a look at our betting preview for the TCU Horned Frogs.
2023-2024 TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
Conference: Big 12
Head Coach: Jamie Dixon (8th season)
2022-2023 Record: 22-13 (9-9)
ATS: 17-17-1
O/U: 17-17-1
Projected Starters: G Jameer Nelson Jr.; G Avery Anderson; G Charles O’Bannon Jr.; F Emanuel Miller; F Ernest Udeh
It’s the eighth season for Jamie Dixon as head coach of his alma mater, and this year will hopefully be better than last year. TCU returned its top six scorers but had chemistry problems all season, which led to Eddie Lampkin leaving the team right before the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Lampkin accused Dixon of racially insensitive comments and mistreatment. The Horned Frogs were predicted fourth and finished fifth, losing a close game to Gonzaga in the second-round of the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs have a 19th overall rating per Bart Torvik, a surprise given just 50.8% of their minutes return. The key is their overall experience, with an average of 2.75 years of college basketball per player. That ranks 19th-most in the nation and significantly higher than the next-most experienced Big 12 team, West Virginia.
Key Player: Emanuel Miller
Coach Dixon’s teams thrive on toughness, defined roles and veteran play. Emanuel Miller defines each attribute for TCU this season. Miller’s improvement from beyond the arc is what has us intrigued for his final CBB season. He quietly turned himself into a 39% 3PT shooter last season after being a non-factor from deep in the prior three seasons. Miller’s rebounding prowess also relates to winning, as the Horned Frogs were 13-5 when Miller grabbed seven or more boards.
Projection: This team is projected high on Torvik but is clearly a “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” roster. Players such as Nelson Jr., Trevian Tennyson (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), Essam Mostafa (Coastal Carolina) and 6-foot-11 Ernest Udeh (Kansas) must all blend quickly. Dixon certainly has the coaching acumen to maximize this talent, but until a leader emerges, it’s hard for me to see much conference improvement from TCU.
How I’m Betting TCU: Fading early. I need to see this team gel, especially after relying on Mike Miles Jr. so much in late-game situations. The keys to the overtime NCAA Tournament loss to Arizona two years ago, Miles and Lampkin, are now gone. Given their likely emphasis on defense and offensive struggles, I’ll look for unders on their game totals in the non-conference schedule.
