NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s start with the best conference in college basketball, the Big 12. Last season ended a three-year streak of Big 12 representation in the NCAA Championship game, including consecutive championships from Baylor (2020-2021) and Kansas (2021-2022). This year, the conference will add four new teams in Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF. With 14 total teams, will we see a change with the top teams, or will the dominance of national powerhouses such as Kansas, Texas and Baylor be magnified further?
Let’s take a look at our betting preview for the Iowa State Cyclones.
2023-2024 Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview
Conference: Big 12
Head Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (3rd season)
2022-2023 Record: 19-14 (9-9)
ATS: 16-17
O/U: 11-22
Projected Starters: PG Tamin Lipsey, G Jackson Paveletzke, G Curtis Jones, F Omaha Biliew, C Tre King
Everyone will underestimate Iowa State, and the Cyclones will exceed expectations yet again. The reason is head coach T.J. Otzelberger, one of the most underrated leaders in the country. Iowa State was looking like a top-10 team in the nation after a 13-2 start, including a perfect 4-0 record in the Big 12. However, the Cyclones blew a 23-point lead with 12 minutes left to lowly Texas Tech and struggled for consistency the rest of the season. Shooting guard Caleb Grill was dismissed from the team shortly after a two-game suspension, and the Cyclones lost six of seven games late in the season. Despite their struggles, Iowa State still managed to beat Baylor twice in consecutive matchups, on the road in the season finale and then again in the first-round of the Big 12 Tournament.
With Grill (eight games), Aljaz Kunc (10 games) and Jeremiah Williams (season) all missing significant time, the methodical Cyclones were fighting uphill all season. Otzelberger’s system delineates responsibilities for each player, making it tougher to overcome unexpected injuries. However, with the second-best recruiting class in the Big 12 (and seventh overall), Iowa State is reloaded for another strong run in 2023-2024.
Key Player: Omaha Biliew
The 6-foot-8, 210-pound Biliew is only the second McDonald’s All-American to play for Iowa State, joining Marcus Fizer from 1997. He is projected as a potential lottery pick next year, and Otzelberger has raved about his defensive ability. We know the Cyclones will lock down their opponents on defense, so if the explosive Biliew can provide solid interior scoring, this team has immense upside.
Projection: Tamin Lipsey was inconsistent as a freshman but has first-team All Big 12 potential. Otzelberger secured three talented transfers that all prioritize defense. Iowa State recruits to their system, which is a unique, but successful way to win in the Big 12. Their 68-53 home destruction of Kansas was a prime example. The loss of Osun Osunniyi leaves a hole in the middle that 6-foot-7 Tre King will need to fill with Biliew. I never doubt Otzelberger and will be high on the Cyclones yet again.
How I’m Betting Iowa State: The Cyclones have not been a great home cover team during Otzelberger’s two seasons, combining for an 18-17 ATS record. Given the long reputation of “Hilton Magic,” that is worth monitoring. The better wager for the Cyclones is the under, which has gone 42-26 (62%) over the past two years. The Cyclones also went 8-3 to the under in true road matchups last season, reinforcing Otzelberger’s ability to enforce his style on Iowa State’s opponents. I am rooting for Otzelberger to win with a contrarian and deliberate style but will prefer betting totals instead of sides until I see how the new roster assimilates.
