NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s start with the best conference in college basketball, the Big 12. Last season ended a three-year streak of Big 12 representation in the NCAA Championship game, including consecutive championships from Baylor (2020-2021) and Kansas (2021-2022). This year, the conference will add four new teams in Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF. With 14 total teams, will we see a change with the top teams, or will the dominance of national powerhouses such as Kansas, Texas and Baylor be magnified further?
Let’s take a look at our betting preview for the UCF Knights.
2023-2024 UCF Knights Betting Preview
Conference: Big 12
Head Coach: Johnny Dawkins (8th season)
2022-2023 Record: 19-15 (8-10)
ATS: 17-15-2
O/U: 18-14-2
Projected Starters: G Darius Johnson; G Shemarri Allen; G Jaylin Sellers; F CJ Walker; C Omar Payne
Loyal subscribers of FTN Bets know my feelings on UCF head coach Johnny Dawkins. Entering his eighth season as head coach, the Knights have only seen the NCAA Tournament once, and that was six years ago. The former Duke star has guided Stanford and UCF for a combined 16 seasons and has just two NCAA Tournament trips to show for it. UCF only returns 24.2% of their minutes from last season, putting success in the hands of Dawkins’ ability to create chemistry and team “buy-in.” If the Knights finished below .500 in the AAC with a top-10 NBA draft pick in Taylor Hendricks, why should we be optimistic in their inaugural Big 12 season?
Key Player: CJ Walker
After losing 80% of the starting lineup, CJ Walker will be asked to embrace multiple roles for UCF this season. The gifted 6-foot-8 forward can rebound with anyone in the AAC, deter shots at the rim, and stretch the floor (37% 3P). The Big 12 seems to hold a number of future NBA players, and CJ Walker needs to put his name on that list for the Knights to stay competitive.
Projection: Point guard Darius Johnson needs to take a huge leap forward, while Jaylin Sellers’ elite 3P shooting ability (45%) at Ball State needs to translate. At 6-foot-10 Omar Payne brings size and a former top-100 recruit, but he has disappointed at four college seasons across three different schools. Dawkins’ team ranked second-best in the AAC in defensive efficiency, first in defensive turnover percentage and first overall (80.4%) in free throw shooting. That wasn’t good enough to finish better than seventh in the ACC?
How I’m Betting UCF: It’s a beautiful nonconference schedule for UCF, littered with under-the-radar mid-major teams that will be undervalued by the betting market. FIU, Stetson, Cal State Fullerton, Lipscombe, Jacksonville and especially Maine should all cause the Knights problems even though all those games are in Orlando. A neutral court game against South Dakota State should also prove lucrative. Last year was actually fairly successful given Dawkins track record, which provides us glorious betting opportunities starting in just three weeks.
