NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the Big Ten. Always competitive each season, the Big Ten has developed a reputation for early-round flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Only Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top four teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Let’s start with our betting preview for the Purdue Boilermakers.
2023-2024 Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
Conference: Big 10
Head Coach: Matt Painter (19th season)
2022-2023 Record: 29-6 (15-5)
ATS: 13-20-2
O/U: 15-20
Projected Starters: G Fletcher Loyer; G Braden Smith; G Ethan Morton; F Mason Gillis; C Zach Edey
It was the tale of two narratives for Purdue. The first narrative was a dominant regular season, led by National Player of the Year Zach Edey. The Boilermakers won the Big Ten by three full games after being projected fifth in the conference preseason poll. Purdue earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, with the second-most regular-season wins (29) in school history.
Then FDU happened.
The upset by the No. 16 seed FDU put a huge blemish on an otherwise great Boilermakers season. There are concerns that Matt Painter “can’t win the big game,” and Purdue will now enter the season with lofty expectations since Edey has returned. The good news is that they return 83.3% of their minutes from a wildly successful team, and are the preseason No. 1 overall team per BartTorvik. With all five starters back, the Boilermakers will be atop the conference and national polls to start the season.
Key Player: Zach Edey
Zach Edey is the dominant force in college basketball, but can he get Purdue to their first Final Four since 1980? We expect ridiculous efficiency on the offensive side with lofty PER numbers to complement his dominant traditional box score stats. Edey has shown remarkable growth with the Boilermakers, improving his points per game from 8.7 as a freshman to 22.3 last season, while almost tripling his nightly rebounding average from 4.4 to 12.9. For a player who stands 7-foot-4, his 73.4% free-throw average is remarkable. Can Purdue translate Edey’s positive impact on the floor to positive March success? That is the key to the entire Boilermakers season.
Projection: Last year I wrote, “Purdue’s home court advantage will always contribute to a solid overall record, but can Painter really win the Big Ten despite missing a floor general?” The answer was a resounding “yes.” This season they will be judged on postseason success only, but that narrative was a huge success for Virginia in 2019. There are a lot of similarities between those two teams with veteran players and a coach who is now getting criticized despite massive success. If the chemistry is strong, the Boilermakers will be a 1-seed again in the NCAA Tournament.
How I’m Betting Purdue: Shocking stat of the day: Over the past two seasons, Purdue has the 22nd-worst ATS record at 28-41-3 (40.6%). Within conference play, they are even worse at 15-28-3 (34.9%), 11th-worst in the nation. I will certainly be fading the Boilermakers again, especially inside Big Ten play.
