NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the Big Ten. Always competitive each season, the Big Ten has developed a reputation for early-round flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Only Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top four teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Let’s start with our betting preview for the Illinois Fighting Illini.
2023-2024 Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Brad Underwood (7th season)
2022-2023 Record: 20-13 (11-9)
ATS: 17-15-1
O/U: 15-17-1
Projected Starters: G Niccolo Moretti; G Terrence Shannon Jr.; F Quincy Guerrier; F Marcus Domask; F Dain Dainja
It was a struggle for head coach Brad Underwood, as Illinois took the preseason No. 2 ranking in the Big Ten and finished tied for a disappointing fifth. The Illini brought in a top-10 recruiting class and the second-best transfer class in all of college basketball. However, freshman point guard Skyy Clark took a leave of absence from the team and eventually entered the transfer portal. That hurt the Illini offense as Clark was the only true point guard on the roster. There were signs of disagreements between Underwood and the players, and a disappointing season ended with three straight losses in the regular season (at Purdue), Big Ten Tournament (Penn State) and NCAA Tournament (Arkansas). Underwood will try to rebuild the positive chemistry with solid transfers such as Quincy Guerrier (Oregon), Marcus Domas (Southern Illinois), and Australian prospect Niccolo Moretti.
Key Player: Terrence Shannon Jr.
Encore performance is upcoming for Terrence Shannon Jr. The fifth-year student-athlete returns after a true breakout season. Shannon will continue to be the offensive hub for Illinois after posting 17.2 PPG, highlighted by some nuclear stretches of games. The 6-foot-6 lefty will impact the game on both ends of the floor and is unafraid of the big moment. The only question? Can Shannon translate his improved play to postseason success for the Illini and Coach Underwood?
Projection: Underwood is a good coach, and this roster should have better chemistry simply by subtraction. Shannon needs to keep his scoring prowess while raising his efficiency (44.2% FG, 32.1% 3P). Domask is a good scorer, but we always suppress the projected impact from a player that “transfers up.” Will Underwood put Shannon at point guard? Can they play him off the ball with Moretti? Illinois can be competitive in conference play but will have a low floor unless Shannon provides a comparable encore.
How I’m betting Illinois: I’m in full “wait-and-see” mode with Illinois, as they usually hover around .500 on both sides and totals. It’s credit to Underwood’s coaching ability that the Illini went 4-2 as road underdogs the past two seasons. I expect there to be more opportunities like 2023-2024, which is exactly where I’ll be backing Illinois.
