NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the Big Ten. Always competitive each season, the Big Ten has developed a reputation for early-round flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Only Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top four teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Let’s start with our betting preview for the Michigan State Spartans.
2023-2024 Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Tom Izzo (28th season)
2022-2023 Record: 21-13 (11-8)
ATS: 17-17
O/U: 17-17
Projected Starters: G Tyson Walker; G Jaden Akins; G A.J. Hoggard; F Malik Hall; C Xavier Booker;
Michigan State is coming, folks.
Head coach Tom Izzo returns 77.2% of his minutes from a season that ended with an overtime Sweet 16 loss to Kansas State. The Spartans had that late-season look of a Final Four team yet again, and now return a superb starting core with the seventh-best recruiting class per 24/7 Sports. Guard Tyson Walker took a massive step forward, boosting his average from 8.2 PPG to a team-leading 14.8 PPG. Walker also blistered the nets at a 41.5% rate on 142 3PA. averaging just 8.2 PPG and 42.7 percent from the field. As a team the Spartans shot 39.3% from beyond the arc, third best in the country. Forward Malik Hall battled through injuries to his left foot and ankle last season, necessitating surgery in April. His presence makes this team a National Championship contender.
Key Player: A.J. Hoggard
One of the most improved players inside the Big Ten last season, Hoggard returns after leading Michigan State to a somewhat surprising Sweet 16 run last season. The 6-foot-3 lead guard unveiled a massive jump in shooting metrics from the free throw line and from 3P range. Coupled with a habit of getting to the line, good things happen offensively with the ball in Hoggard’s hands. We predict Hoggard will be a triple-double threat all season for the Spartans, while improving on his already impressive assist-to-turnover ratio.
Projection: I am through the roof on this Spartans team, as everything lines up for a big year. Izzo with an experienced backcourt is basketball kismet, especially if the outside shooting is as proficient as last season. Michigan State ranked first within the conference in 3P shooting, 3P defense, and free throw percentage. All critical metrics that are tethered to sustained seasonal success. This is a Final Four-caliber team.
How I’m Betting Michigan State: Their betting numbers weren’t great last season, but I will be backing them right from the start. The one trend I noticed? The Spartans were 8-3 (72.7%) to the over in away games, and 14-8 (63.6%) the past two seasons. Given their slow pace of play (306th last year), the game totals may be too low, not accounting for their superb offense and elite free throw shooting. Their nonconference numbers are balanced, so more a thought in Big Ten road matchups.
