NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the Big Ten. Always competitive each season, the Big Ten has developed a reputation for early-round flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Only Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top four teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Let’s start with our betting preview for the Indiana Hoosiers.
2023-2024 Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Mike Woodson (3rd season)
2021-2022 Record: 23-12 (12-8)
ATS: 16-18-1
O/U: 20-14-1
Projected Starters: G Xavier Johnson (SR); G Trey Galloway; G Jakai Newton; F Mackenzie Mgbako; C Kel’el Ware
The jury is out on Mike Woodson at Indiana. His first season the Hoosiers won 21 games, the most since 2015-2016 and nine more than the prior season under Archie Miller. Indiana scored a huge offseason win when Jackson-Davis returned for his senior season, complemented by the 11th-best recruiting class in the nation. They returned 78.1% of their minutes from the prior season and were selected first overall in the Big Ten preseason poll.
While the Hoosiers finished tied for second (12-8) with Northwestern, they finished just one game ahead of essentially five teams, and three full games behind Purdue. They lost in their second game in the conference tournament (Penn State) and were then destroyed in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament by Miami.
Key Player: Mackenzie Mgbako
Another Jersey tough student-athlete who can truly stretch the floor from beyond the arc; Mgbako also owns legit mid-range skills on the offensive end. We think Mgbako will develop into an NBA first round pick with his cross section of three-point shooting, size and rebounding. Coach Woodson designed a Knicks offense around a gifted shot maker from the mid-range not too long ago. Mgbako will benefit from the structure, guidance and teaching the Indiana staff provides all season long.
Projection: I’m concerned about the Hoosiers in Woodson’s third season. He has another strong recruiting class (10th overall) but will rely on an influx of big men during a guard and perimeter dominated time in college basketball. Mgbako decommitted from Duke after Kyle Filipowski returned, but Indiana will rely heavily on Xavier Johnson for backcourt production. I expect the 7-foot Ware to start, but will Woodson go with Reneau as a third big or use a guard like unproven freshman Jakai Newton? There is also 6-foot-9 forward Payton Sparks (13.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG) who was very productive at Ball State. This honestly feels like Woodson just grabbed as many high-profile players as possible and ended up with extra bigs. There was a decline in the Hoosiers defensive efficiency last season, with much more stability than this year. Despite the big recruiting class and the return of Xavier Johnson, I see this as a middle of the conference team that is NIT bound.
How I’m Betting Indiana: The Hoosiers hit the over in eight of their first 12 games last season, and that was with a huge returning core. They covered five of their first seven games, then failed to cover eight of the next nine even with Trayce Jackson-Davis. I am fading the Hoosiers to start the season. I would need to see Mgbako dominate and Woodson scheme up an effective, unique style with his plethora of bigs. Indiana ranked third in the Big Ten in 3P accuracy, hitting at a 38% clip. I don’t think they even approach that number and will struggle against guard dominant teams. I am very skeptical of Indiana and the length of Mike Woodson’s tenure in Bloomington.
