NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the Big Ten. Always competitive each season, the Big Ten has developed a reputation for early-round flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Only Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top four teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Let’s start with our betting preview for the Maryland Terrapins.
2023-2024 Maryland Terrapins Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Kevin Willard (2nd season)
2022-2023 Record: 22-13 (11-9)
ATS: 22-13
O/U: 12-23
Projected Starters: G Jahmir Young; G DeShawn Harris-Smith; F Noah Batchelor; F Donta Scott; C Julian Reese
Kevin Willard did a superb job in his first-year leading the Terrapins, posting 22 wins an a first-round NCAA Tournament victory over West Virginia. Maryland returns 52.5 percent of their minutes, but three of their four leading scorers. Senior Jahmir Young (15.6 PPG) returning was a nice surprise and should pair well with top-25 freshman DeShawn Harris-Smith. The frontcourt pairing of Donta Scott and Julian Reese is one of the best in not only the Big Ten, but the nation. For a team that ranked top-36 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom last season, the expectation is that Maryland will take a step forward into the top-3 teams in the conference.
Key Player: Julian Reese
The 6-foot-9, 230-pound junior accomplished exactly what we predicted in this space last season. Reese took that jump as a sophomore to keep Maryland in contention for the NCAAs. He displayed hefty gains in offensive rebounding, defending in the post, and overall offensive efficiency last season. Imagine if Reese starts to stretch the floor out to the 3PT line, recapture his touch from the free throw line, and reduce those fouls? Reese is one of the more intriguing players inside the conference who just might make a national imprint this season.
Projection: Don’t look now, but this Maryland team could make some noise in the Big Ten. After Purdue, Michigan State, there is not a more balanced team than the Terrapins. My concern is clear: Can Willard win the big games? Maryland was top-36 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom, yet ranked just fifth and sixth respectively within the conference. The Terrapins only major roster loss was Hakim Hart (Villanova), and Jahmir Young is one of my favorite go-to players late in games. Willard teams always play tough, hard-nose defense, but they really struggled to score, shooting just 32.8% from 3P range. Year 1 of the Willard era produced an NCAA Tournament ticket and a first-round comeback win over West Virginia. They should take a step forward this year, and I think they will.
How I’m Betting Maryland: My opinion on Kevin Willard-coached teams ATS has remained consistent: King of the Little People. He has struggled in the big game and against superior teams. Last year was no different, as Maryland went 1-9 SU on the road within the conference. The Terps were 4-7 ATS on the road, and a whopping 17-5 (77.3%) as a favorite. Willard’s teams certainly play defense, which is reflected in the 11th-best under record in college basketball. Maryland has 4-9 to the Under in non-conference games, which leads me to fading Maryland ATS and pairing with the under when they are underdogs.
