NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top-4 teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and it’s been 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Let’s start with our betting preview for the Wisconsin Badgers.
2023-2024 Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Greg Gard (9th season)
2022-2023 Record: 20-15 (9-11)
ATS: 15-18-2
O/U: 17-18
Projected Starters: G Chucky Hepburn; G Connor Essegian; G Max Klesmit; F Tyler Wahl; C Steven Crowl
Wisconsin missed the NCAA Tournament for only the second time in Gard’s eight seasons as Badgers head coach. However, the Badgers return the fourth-most minutes (89.6%) of any team in college basketball per BartTorvik. That has been the past recipe for success in Madison, even absent an elite star NBA player such as Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker or Johnny Davis. With only reserve Jordan Davis transferring to Illinois State, the Badgers should rely on their experience and camaraderie to get off to a fast start. A home matchup with Tennessee on November 10th, followed by a neutral-court battle with Virginia will be perfect bellwethers. Wisconsin is always underrated nationally because of their style, and their Big Ten preseason rank of fifth is yet another example.
Key Player: Tyler Wahl
Tyler Wahl is cashing in on the COVID-19 additional year of eligibility and Wisconsin will greatly benefit. After an 11-2 start last season, Wahl’s ankle injury coincided with the Badgers losing six of their next seven games. Usually, this equates to a lost season, but Gard’s rallied his team to reach the semifinals of the NIT, where they lost a heartbreaker to eventual champion North Texas, 56-54. The Badgers failed to score over the final nine minutes of that game. Wahl’s 23 points and 10 rebounds against Kansas in Atlantis, shows his massive upside when healthy.
Projection: They aren’t flashy, but Wisconsin has experience and a track record of success. The simple fact this team is not in the preseason AP Top 25 illustrates the chasm of disconnect between perception and reality. The Badgers are an NCAA Tournament team and a darkhorse to win the Big Ten. The key? They need to find 3P shooting. Over the past two seasons, Wisconsin has ranked last (31%) and 10th (33.5%) in accuracy from beyond the arc. Playing their deliberate style of offense, that needs to get better. When they find every reasonable accuracy from deep, Wisconsin is a threat to beat any team in the country.
How I’m Betting Wisconsin: Backing them across the board. Wisconsin was 8-2 ATS to start the season with only a non-cover against instate rival Green Bay and home loss to Wake Forest when Tyree Appleby (32 points) went nuts. I love this team because they slow the pace, limiting their opponents’ possessions, and have a veteran roster that will cause their opponents fits. One of the true betting opportunities in college basketball, especially early in the season.
