NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top-4 teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and it’s been 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Let’s start with our betting preview for the Penn State Nittany Lions.
2023-2024 Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Mike Rhoades (1st season)
2021-2022 Record: 23-14 (10-10)
ATS: 22-13-2
O/U: 20-16-1
Projected Starters: G Ace Baldwin Jr.; G Nick Kern Jr; F Puff Johnson; F Zach Hicks; F Qudus Wahab*
Micah Shrewsberry departed for Notre Dame after two successful seasons with the Nittany Lions. Penn State earned a first-round NCAA Tournament upset over Texas A&M before giving Texas a huge scare in the Round of 32. Mike Rhoades now leads a Penn State team that will lose 10 players from last year’s roster and will rely on a wealth of transfers. Rhoades brings the superb talents of point guard Ace Baldwin Jr. from VCU, the reigning A10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Baldwin will create for Temple transfer, Zach Hicks, a lights-out shooter from deep. Hicks posted 16 games with 3-plus 3PM for the Owls last season. A lot is needed out of 6-foot-11 Qudus Wahab, whose college path has traveled from Georgetown to Maryland, back to Georgetown and now to Penn State. A lot of changes equate to a lot of unknowns in University Park.
Key Player: Ace Baldwin Jr.
Ace Baldwin Jr. deserves this senior season inside the Big Ten after COVID-19 robbed his March Madness opportunity while at VCU. The lead guard is one of the finest defenders on the perimeter in college basketball, improving as a free throw shooter each season. Baldwin has developed into a solid 3P shooter over the past two seasons while allocating almost six assists per game.
Projection: Rhoades is a good coach that took VCU to three NCAA Tournaments in six years. Baldwin’s presence enforces his fast-paced style, which should suit speedy 5-foot-11 returning guard Kanye Cleary. D’Marco Dunn and Puff Johnson bring UNC lineage, but underwhelming production. Rhoades will keep this team competitive on a nightly basis, which is how they should be judged at the end of a season with excessive change.
How I’m Betting Penn State: Rhoades teams like to force turnovers, but he will need to adjust to a reduced home court advantage at Penn State. VCU was 21-14 to the under last season, which is likely where the betting value lies. How Baldwin does against Big Ten competition will tell us a lot about their potential within the conference. The preseason poll placed Penn State 13th, which seems low. I like their coach, defense and Baldwin too much to not eye backing the Nittany Lions as underdogs in conference play.
