NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top-4 teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago, the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and it’s been 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Here’s our betting preview for the Ohio State Buckeyes.
2023-2024 Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Chris Holtmann (6th Season)
2022-2023 Record: 16-19 (5-15)
ATS: 14-21
O/U: 18-17
Projected Starters: G Bruce Thornton; G Dale Bonner; F Roddy Gayle Jr.; F Jamison Battle; C Zed Key
Preview: Last year was shocking for Ohio State fans. Head coach Chris Holtmann always makes Ohio State a tough out, but last year’s Buckeyes team failed to make the NCAA Tournament (or any tournament) for the first time in his tenure. While Holtmann has made the Big Dance in his prior four seasons (excluding the COVID cancellation), he has never led Ohio State to the second weekend of the tournament. That is the clear expectation this season.
The Buckeyes rely on a balance of returning players and transfers led by point guard Bruce Thornton, scorer Roddy Gayle Jr. and big man Zed Key. Gayle scored single-digits in 23 of the first 24 games before erupting for 35 total points and 8-of-9 shooting from 3P range in the Buckeyes’ run to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. When Key plays well, the Buckeyes play well, although it’s interesting to note that Ohio State’s conference tournament run came without Key who was shut down with a shoulder injury.
Key Player: Jamison Battle
I tend to be skeptical of scorers on bad teams, but Ohio State needs production from the 6-foot-7 senior. Battle played two seasons each at George Washington and Minnesota but has seen his field goal percentage and 3P accuracy drop over the past two seasons. Assuming Gayle’s late-season outburst fails to translate immediately, Battle could be this team’s leading scorer. Ohio State ranked 12th out of 14 Big Ten teams in defensive efficiency, and Battle is unlikely to be an asset for improvement. However, increasing his efficiency will go a long way toward a return to the NCAA Tournament for the Buckeyes.
Projection: I believe in Holtmann, and their conference tournament run is something to build on. They need to be better defensively, while maintaining a better presence on the offensive and defensive boards. Key and backup big man Feliz Okpara should anchor the interior, and Thornton is one of the most consistent players in the conference. Holtmann is usually good in the non-conference and started last year 10-3. Ohio State ranks seventh in the preseason Big Ten poll but has a top-4 finish well-within its range of outcomes.
How I’m Betting Ohio State: Fading the Buckeyes was a profitable play last season, mainly because the sportsbooks kept waiting for Ohio State to turn their season around. This was especially true in road matchups, where the Buckeyes were a woeful 2-9 ATS. I expect Ohio State to be much more competitive, although their defense may again struggle. The Buckeyes were 8-3 to the over in the non-conference, and I expect a similar result this season. I will be backing Ohio State in the non-conference and early Big Ten matchups, while trying to take advantage of favorable totals early in the season.
