NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top-4 teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and it’s been 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Here’s our betting preview for the Northwestern Wildcats.
2023-2024 Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Chris Collins (11th season)
2022-2023 Record: 22-12 (12-8)
ATS: 21-13
O/U: 14-19-1
Projected Starters: G Boo Buie; G Ty Berry; F Ryan Langborg; F Brooks Barnhizer; C Matthew Nicholson
Preview: Northwestern was one of the best stories in college basketball last season. Collins took a team that was predicted 13th in the preseason poll and produced a 22-12 overall record, finishing tied for second in the Big Ten. The Wildcats swept Indiana (preseason favorite), Illinois (preseason No. 2), won at Michigan State and beat Purdue. That’s quite a season.
The loss of two-way guard Chase Audige hurts, but Northwestern returns four of their top-6 scorers, including elite point guard Boo Buie. Audige was their best defender, which means the Wildcats need to commit to maintaining a defense that ranked first among all Big Ten teams in defensive turnover percentage. The Wildcats could have even been better had they not suffered a decrease in 3P accuracy. Northwestern shot just 32.1% (282nd in the nation) from beyond the arc.
Key Player: Ryan Langborg
The Princeton transfer is an elite 3P shooter who went 8-of-19 (42.1%) from deep in the two NCAA Tournament games against Missouri and Creighton. Langborg only shot 33.2% from deep last year but hit 40% the prior season. His experience in the upsets over Arizona and Missouri will be invaluable as an integral part of this Northwestern offense.
Projection: Northwestern is being undervalued by the public, and their preseason Big Ten ranking of eighth is too low, simply based on the return of Buie. Their defense will probably be worse, but the improvement of their 3P shooting could more than offset the loss of Audige. Their non-conference schedule is very reasonable, and they host Purdue as their first conference game on December 1. That could be a huge scheduling advantage if they can regain their shooting touch from deep. I am higher than consensus on the Wildcats, and they have a repeat top-3 performance in their range of outcomes this season.
How I’m Betting Northwestern: With a veteran team returning, I will be backing Northwestern and the unders in their non-conference schedule. The Wildcats started the season with six straight unders and eight in their first 10 games. They again hit seven straight under to start the month of February. Northwestern went 14-5 SU in games where the under hit. If you like Northwestern, parlay the under. Many think regression is coming, but if you have Buie and a solid nucleus, I’m backing you especially as a conference underdog.
