NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the Big Ten. Always competitive each season, the Big Ten has developed a reputation for early-round flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Only Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top four teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Let’s continue with our betting preview for the Iowa Hawkeyes.
2023-2024 Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Fran McCaffrey (14th season)
2022-2023 Record: 19-14 (11-9)
ATS: 17-16
O/U: 20-13
Projected Starters: G Dasonte Bowen; G Payton Sandfort; G Tony Perkins; F Patrick McCaffrey; C Ben Krikke
Fran McCaffrey brings what every basketball program wants: sustained success. Iowa reached their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, which is a nice encore to last year’s first Big Ten Tournament Championship since 2006. McCaffrey certainly has a unique style: explosive and efficient offense with very little defense. Since the Hawkeyes play with such pace, McCaffrey prioritizes rebounding and limiting second-chance opportunities. That’s easier when you have NBA-level players such as Keegan or Kris Murray, or a National Player of the Year such as Luka Garza. McCaffrey must reload this roster, after losing over 44% of their minutes including their top two scorers. Iowa is composed of experienced players needing to increase their impact and two solid transfers in Valparaiso’s Ben Krikke and Belmont’s Even Brauns.
Key Player: Payton Sandfort
We know that Iowa will put up points and score the ball, but who can fill the scoring void left by Kris Murray and Filip Rebraca? The 6-foot-7 Sandfort wing might just grow into a player that can consistently stretch the defense, forcing the opposition to adjust. Sandfort stands at 6-foot-7 and caught fire from deep over the second half of the season. The Hawkeyes were 8-2 when Sandfort made at least three 3Ps, and 5-0 when he made four or more. Perkins is a more reliable scorer, while Sandfort is the true wild card.
Projection: McCaffrey has enjoyed sustained success at Iowa, winning 19 or more games in 10 of his 11 seasons as head coach. Last year marked the first time since 1985-1989 that Iowa made five straight NCAA Tournaments. There is sneaky upside with this group, especially with players such as Sandfort, Patrick McCaffrey, and Ben Krikke. Can Sandfort grow into an all-around and more consistent scorer? Will McCaffrey blossom in a larger role after taking a leave of absence to address health concerns last season? Can Krikke (19.4 PPG) score as effectively in a much tougher conference? Iowa is always tough at home, and if they can rebound consistently, this team should be back in the NCAA Tournament for a remarkable sixth straight season.
How I’m Betting Iowa: Iowa is an over team. Over the past two seasons, the Hawkeyes (42-26-1) have hit the over in 61% of their games. That’s the No. 15 rate in Division I basketball. In conference games last year, Iowa overs hit at a 67% (14-7) rate, which rises to 76.5% (13-4) in their home games. Over the past two seasons, Iowa is 25-9-1 (73.5%) to the over in contests in Iowa City. Over the past three seasons? 35-15-1 (70%). That’s where my betting focus will be, as well as backing the Hawkeyes as an early-season favorite. Teams just can’t run with Iowa in November and early December. The Hawkeyes are 15-9 (62.5%) ATS in the nonconference the past two seasons.
