NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the ACC. Always competitive each season, the ACC is regularly among the nation’s top conferences with annual Final Four contenders Duke, Virginia and North Carolina. Last season, Miami made their first ever Final Four, guided by the March magic of head coach Jim Larrañaga. There are 15 teams in the ACC, making it the largest of all the power conferences. The critics continue to cite the weakness of the bottom ACC teams, which directly contributes to its sixth overall preseason ranking by KenPom. However, it still holds true that the top teams in the ACC will always have a chance at a Final Four run.
Let’s start with our betting preview for the Duke Blue Devils.
2023-2024 Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Jon Scheyer (2nd season)
2022-2023 Record: 27-9 (14-6)
ATS: 16-20
O/U: 13-22-1
Projected Starters: G Jeremy Roach; G Tyrese Proctor; G Jared McCain; F Mark Mitchell; F Kyle Filipowski
I was very impressed with head coach Jon Scheyer’s first season. Following the greatest coach of all time is a huge challenge, but Scheyer was able to guide the Blue Devils to a respectable third place finish in the ACC, and subsequent ACC Conference Championship over rival Virginia. The cynics will say Duke won their semifinal matchup over a Miami team that lost Norchard Omier one minute into the game, and then beat a Ben Vander Plas-less Cavaliers team for the title. But overall, no one can argue last year was a huge success for Scheyer and the Blue Devils.
Per Bart Torvik, Duke returns 74.1% of their minutes, a massive increase from just 16.1 percent entering last season. Duke projects to start just on freshman, after starting three last season. A late-season move of Proctor to point guard allowed Roach to assume more of the scoring load and coincided with a 10-game winning streak that carried Duke until their NCAA Tournament loss to Tennessee. Duke fans are very optimistic for this season, and rightfully so.
Key Player: Tyrese Proctor
Proctor returning to Duke made the Blue Devils a favorite to win the National Championship. He teams with Filipowski to create a devastating inside-outside duo. Proctor is projected as a lottery pick and brings triple-double ability to every game. He needs to improve his shooting efficiency (38% FG, 32% 3P), but is a legitimate first-team All-American player that can get Duke to Glendale, Ariz.
Projection: I doubted Scheyer to start the season and benefitted from a 7-13 mark ATS to start the season. However, the Blue Devils’ late season run to the ACC Conference Championship was extremely impressive, as were the core players all deciding to return. This is a big year for the Blue Devils, and one that could end with another Final Four trip. It’s hard to not like the roster construction of this team, featuring talent, leadership, and unselfishness.
How I’m Betting Duke: I faded Duke to start the season because of the inexperience of both Scheyer and the freshman. This year is different, but betting lines are always inflated with Blue Devils games. It’s worth noting that Duke is just 36-27-2 the last two seasons ATS and 45-52-2 the last three seasons. The Blue Devils were also just 3-6 ATS against ranked opponents. However, those teams were inexperienced, this team is not. The big focus will be on game totals, as Duke was tied with Tennessee (63%) with one of the best under rates in the country. Does Scheyer’s guidance continue a return to defense and a slower pace? My early bets will support that theory, while being cautious fading the Blue Devils ATS.
