NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the ACC. Always competitive each season, the ACC is regularly among the nation’s top conferences with annual Final Four contenders Duke, Virginia and North Carolina. Last season, Miami made their first ever Final Four, guided by the March magic of head coach Jim Larrañaga. There are 15 teams in the ACC, making it the largest of all the power conferences. The critics continue to cite the weakness of the bottom ACC teams, which directly contributes to its sixth overall preseason ranking by KenPom. However, it still holds true that the top teams in the ACC will always have a chance at a Final Four run.
Let’s continue with our betting preview for the North Carolina Tar Heels.
2023-2024 North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Hubert Davis (3rd season)
2022-2023 Record: 20-13(11-9)
ATS: 11-20-2
O/U: 14-19
Projected Starters: PG Elliot Cadeau, SG R.J. Davis, SF Harrison Ingram, PF Jae’Lyn Withers, C Armando Bacot
It was a rough second year for head coach Hubert Davis. After a magic ride to the NCAA Championship game, headlined by Final Four victory over rival Duke (in Mike Krzyzewski’s last game), the Tar Heels imploded. The Tar Heels return almost their entire nucleus for one of the betting favorites to win the National Championship. North Carolina became the first top-ranked team in The Associated Press preseason poll to miss the NCAA Tournament since the field’s expansion in 1985.
The offseason was a mixed bag for North Carolina. They did secure Cadeau, who reclassified to become the No. 2 point guard and No. 11 overall player in the 2023 class. However, the Tar Heels lost five-star Simeon Wilcher, who was likely frustrated with the return of R.J. Davis. Wilcher is now headed to St. John’s and Rick Pitino. At the moment, North Carolina does have the No. 1 overall recruiting class for 2024, with two Top 10 players committed. But another disappointing season and those recruits may leave, and Davis may not be the coach. This is a critical year in Chapel Hill.
Returning Bacot gives the Tar Heels a legitimate Player of the Year candidate, and Ingram surprisingly chose UNC over Kansas. Davis also secured Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) and Paxon Wojcik (Brown) to secure their outside shooting. On paper, this team is a Top 10 group.
Key Player: Harrison Ingram
We know what we’re getting from Bacot and Davis. Withers is solid and North Carolina has guard depth in case Cadeau doesn’t pop right away. The X-factor is Ingram, who is a former five-star recruit at Stanford. He posted identical stats in his first two years at Stanford, which makes for a great freshman year but disappointing sophomore campaign. He did end the year with 10 straight games in double-figures, but never saw postseason play in either year. Ingram is definitely transferring up to the ACC, much like Pete Nance did from Northwestern last year. Nance was a disappointment, will Ingram be better?
Projection: I don’t have much faith in Hubert Davis. The first half of his inaugural season was disappointing, but then the magic second-half run almost led to an NCAA Championship. There were chemistry problems last year, especially with Caleb Love. Rumors swirled that Davis couldn’t be tough enough on Love’s shot selection, which led to dissension. This group should be better, in theory. Can we all buy-in on potential alone?
How I’m Betting North Carolina: The head coach matters to me an enormous amount when deciding on a major conference team. The extra year of eligibility has made small schools even more dangerous in the non-conference schedule, and large schools that rely on physical talent over schemes can be vulnerable favorites. The Tar Heels failed to cover eight of their first nine games last year, and 11 of their first 15 contests. Betting is a fluid process, but I plan on fading the Tar Heels again in 2023-2024 until proven otherwise.
