NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the ACC. Always competitive each season, the ACC is regularly among the nation’s top conferences with annual Final Four contenders Duke, Virginia and North Carolina. Last season, Miami made their first ever Final Four, guided by the March magic of head coach Jim Larrañaga. There are 15 teams in the ACC, making it the largest of all the power conferences. The critics continue to cite the weakness of the bottom ACC teams, which directly contributes to its sixth overall preseason ranking by KenPom. However, it still holds true that the top teams in the ACC will always have a chance at a Final Four run.
Let’s continue with our betting preview for the Miami Hurricanes.
2023-2024 Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Jim Larrañaga (13th season)
2022-2023 Record: 29-8 (15-5)
ATS: 22-15
O/U: 17-19-1
Projected Starters: G Nijel Pack; G Bensley Joseph; G Wooga Poplar; G Matthew Cleveland; F Norchad Omier
Last season, the Hurricanes lost over 40 PPG, and only returned 49.8% of last year’s minutes per Torvik. However, Larrañaga brought in Norchad Omier (Arkansas State) and Nijel Pack (Kansas State) which served as the foundation for their first-ever trip to the Final Four. Miami returns a solid 54.2% of their minutes but will need big things from Florida State-transfer Matthew Cleveland. Their other new faces are limited to 6-foot-9 freshman Michael Nwoko, 6-foot-6 Switzerland shooting guard Kyshawn George, and 6-foot-6 small forward Paul Djobet. The Hurricanes won with an elite offense that finished the year ranked sixth in adjusted efficiency per KenPom. Without Isaiah Wong or Jordan Miller, that will be tough to replicate. The Hurricanes need to get better on defense to match last year’s success.
Key Player: Matthew Cleveland
After viewing how valuable Jordan Miller was for a Final Four roster, adding the talented 6-7 Cleveland appears to be a proper, functional fit for the Hurricanes on the wing. An event-creator on defense, Cleveland can guard multiple positions on the floor without sacrificing size and length. Under the cover of an underperforming Seminoles season, Cleveland blossomed into a legit shooter from deep (18% as a freshman to 35% last season). Cleveland will be a snug fit next to the gritty Norchad Omier for Miami.
Projection: Great coaches are hard to find, but the Hurricanes know they have one in Larrañaga. Miami gathered a top-25 recruiting class last season, only to see 6-foot-11 Favour Aire (Penn State) and 6-foot-7 Danilo Jovanovich (Louisville) transfer out after the season. That shortens their bench and prioritizes contributions from sophomore AJ Casey and Christian Watson. I’m intrigued by the Hurricanes, who return three key pieces from last year’s magical run. That usually means a high floor with an unknown upside.
How I’m Betting Miami: Over the past two seasons, Miami is 43-31 (58.1% ATS, including an impressive 29-15 (66%) ATS within the ACC. That means Miami is just 14-16 (46.7%) ATS against nonconference opponents. My instinct is to favor the over early in the year, as Miami struggles to tighten up defense after losing two key scorers. Worth noting: Miami was 9-3 (75%) ATS as an underdog last season, and 11-3 (78.6%) over the past two seasons.
