NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the SEC. Always one of my favorite conferences, the SEC has grown to be one of the most competitive conferences from top to bottom. While Kentucky has the national name-brand recognition, teams such as Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and Florida also combine massive fan bases and sustained success. There are 14 teams in the SEC, and all teams are competitive on a nightly basis. The SEC is currently ranked as the second-best overall conference in preseason ranking by KenPom. It is an exciting conference, with elite players and fantastic coaches.
Let’s start with our betting preview for the Kentucky Wildcats.
2023-2024 Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview
Conference: SEC
Head Coach: John Calipari (14th season)
2022-2023 Record: 22-12 (12-6)
ATS: 16-18
O/U: 21-13
Projected Starters: G D.J. Wagner; G Antonio Reeves; F Justin Edwards; F Tre Mitchell; C Ugonna Onyenso
The Wildcats were picked as the SEC’s preseason No. 1 team (again) in 2022-2023 but failed to win the regular-season crown for the third straight season. Head coach John Calipari enters his 15th season yet is criticized for “only” delivering one national championship. The Wildcats’ 2022-2023 results include some head-scratching losses, including twice to Vanderbilt. The Commodores upset Kentucky in the first round of the SEC Tournament, which was followed by a second-round NCAA Tournament exit to Kansas State. The Wildcats continue to reload, however, with the nation’s No. 1 overall recruiting class. Two major players are recovering from injuries, with freshman Aaron Bradshaw and sophomore Ugonna Onyenso both recovering from offseason surgery.
Key Player: Aaron Bradshaw
Calipari certainly understands uniquely talented bigs (KAT, AD, Julius Randle) and 7-foot McDonald’s All-American Aaron Bradshaw is a gifted basketball player. After missing time while participating in Canada at Global Jam, Bradshaw will be eager to make an immediate impact for the Wildcats. The Kentucky freshman guards will garner most of the early attention, but Bradshaw’s development and defensive impact as an elite rim protector will be the defining factor this season. Will Kentucky shake the reputation of a generic 22- to 25-win team that disappoints and make a fourth Final Four under Calipari?
Projection: Kentucky fans are frustrated, but name a coach who could have produced a better 15-year resume than Calipari? Three Final Fours, one national championship and an elite recruiting class every year is a far cry from underachieving. Calipari’s teams always rebound and defend the 3P well. With five players ranked inside ESPN’s Top 40 college basketball players, Calipari has plenty of talent to choose from … and plenty of expectations yet again.
How I’m Betting Kentucky: The Wildcats are 38-30 (56%) to the over the past two seasons and had a streak in the middle of the season with 14 overs in 17 games. The Wildcats always carry strong defensive metrics, especially against the 3P, and do not play at an incredibly fast pace (ninth and 11th within SEC last two seasons). That makes their game totals suppressed, providing nice opportunities on the total. They are 21-15 to the over as a home team the past two seasons. I won’t enter the season with confidence ATS, but will look to their overs, especially at home in Rupp Arena.
