NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the SEC. Always one of my favorite conferences, the SEC has grown to be one of the most competitive conferences from top to bottom. While Kentucky has the national name-brand recognition, teams such as Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and Florida also combine massive fan bases and sustained success. There are 14 teams in the SEC, and all teams are competitive on a nightly basis. The SEC is currently ranked as the second-best overall conference in preseason ranking by KenPom. It is an exciting conference, with elite players and fantastic coaches.
Let’s continue with our betting preview for the Tennessee Volunteers.
2023-2024 Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview
Conference: SEC
Head Coach: Rick Barnes (9th season)
2022-2023 Record: 25-11 (11-7)
ATS: 18-18
O/U: 13-22-1
Projected Starters: G Zakai Zeigler; G Santiago Vescovi; G Dalton Knecht; F Josiah-Jordan James; F Jonas Aidoo
Rick Barnes is one of the most polarizing coaches in college basketball. He has guided the Volunteers to 25 or more wins in four of the past six seasons, including five trips to the NCAA Tournament (only excluding the pandemic-shortened season). Yet, his detractors have grown tired of the lack of sustained success in March.
Could it be Barnes’ style, which prioritizes defensive prowess over explosive offense? Over the past three seasons, Tennessee has ranked fifth, third and first in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Those seasons have ended with upsets in the NCAA Tournament as a 5-seed, 3-seed and 4-seed respectively.
Last season, the Volunteers lost starting point guard Zakai Zeigler to a torn ACL in their penultimate regular-season game, a 75-57 blowout win over Arkansas. That forced Santiago Vescovi back to the point guard position, slowing down a limited offense even further. It’s possible the health of Zeigler would have been the difference in their Sweet 16 loss at Madison Square Garden to Cinderella Florida Atlantic.
The Volunteers scored a top-50 recruit in combo guard Cameron Carr from Missouri and nabbed two key transfers in Jordan Gainey (South Carolina Upstate) and Dalton Knecht (Northern Colorado). They had also secured Harvard-transfer Chris Ledlum, who recently enrolled with Rick Pitino at St. John’s. However, the return of Vescovi, Jordan-James, and Zeigler will have Tennessee back inside the top 10 to start the season.
Key Player: Dalton Knecht
Knecht was a prolific scorer for Northern Colorado, posting 20.2 PPG. He spent two years with the Bears, after transferring from junior college. He now joins a Volunteers team that will really need his scoring ability to transfer up the SEC. Knecht’s long-range accuracy is most impressive: he actually improved from 36% to 38% despite attempting 2.5 more 3PA (3.8 to 6.3) per game. If Knecht can provide consistent 12-15 PPG, this Tennessee offense will be much better than last season’s sixth-best rating within the SEC.
Projection: Barnes’ consistency is vastly underrated — that is the pinnacle of success of any major program. All he needs to quiet the critics is one Final Four run, but will he find a better chance in his career than only needing to defeat Florida Atlantic and Kansas State at Madison Square Garden? Barnes is at his best as an underdog, but Tennessee will project among the SEC’s elite again this season. If the SEC still goes through Lexington, the Volunteers should be uber-confident. Barnes was 6-4 in his last ten matchups with the Wildcats prior to last season, when Kentucky shockingly swept Tennessee. They need consistent offense to become an elite team, but it’s worth noting Barnes was on a 26-6 SEC run before going 3-5 over their last eight conference games in 2022-2023.
How I’m Betting Tennessee: Tennessee’s ability to control the pace made them the 26th-most profitable under team last season. They also dominated pace in the nonconference games, going 11-5 to the under in those situations last year. Going back two seasons, the Volunteers are 60% (18-12) to the under in nonconference matchups. That’s where I’ll be betting Tennessee early, but always love them as home favorites, where they were 11-5 last year with a 5.6-point average margin of ATS victory.
