NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the SEC. Always one of my favorite conferences, the SEC has grown to be one of the most competitive conferences from top to bottom. While Kentucky has the national name-brand recognition, teams such as Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and Florida also combine massive fan bases and sustained success. There are 14 teams in the SEC, and all teams are competitive on a nightly basis. The SEC is currently ranked as the second-best overall conference in preseason ranking by KenPom. It is an exciting conference, with elite players and fantastic coaches.
Let’s continue with our betting preview for the Florida Gators.
2023-2024 Florida Gators Betting Preview
Conference: SEC
Head Coach: Todd Golden (2nd season)
2022-2023 Record: 16-17 (9-9)
ATS: 16-17
O/U: 16-17
Projected Starters: G Zyon Pullin; G Walter Clayton Jr.; G Riley Kugel; F EJ Jarvis; C Tyrese Samuel
This is an interesting year for Florida head coach Todd Golden. He took over after seven years of mixed results for Gators fans with Mike White. In his three prior seasons at San Francisco, Golden built a brand centered around defense, rebounding and efficient offense. Last year was a transition season, and the conference preseason poll placed the Gators seventh, right in the middle of the pack. Florida matched that prediction with an eighth-place finish at 9-9. Florida lost starting center Colin Castleton to a broken hand Feb. 15, which derailed any hope of postseason success. The Gators were one-and-done in the SEC Tournament with a loss to Mississippi State and were then trounced at home in the NIT by UCF, 67-49.
There is certainly pressure on Golden to dramatically improve on that disappointing loss, and that will mean relaying on transfers. Per 24/7 Sports, Florida brings in the 15th-best transfer class, led by Tyrese Samuel (Seton Hall), Walter Clayton Jr. (Iona), Ej Jarvis (Yale) and Zyon Pullin (UC Riverside). Each of those four players should start, meaning Golden’s primary focus will be on chemistry first, then execution.
Key Player: Riley Kugel
The 6-foot-5 powerful Gators guard is on our short list for “breakout players” during the 2023-2024 season. Over the final 10 games of his freshman season, Kugel put up 17.3 PPG while shooting over 40% from deep. His most revealing stat? Minutes played. Early in the season Kugel played a mere six minutes against rival Florida State. Fast forward to the SEC tournament, and Kugel stayed on the floor all 40 minutes for the Gators. If the Gators are going to compete in the upper echelon of the SEC this season, Kugel needs to be the straw that stirs that drink.
Projection: I always like the Gators, and I especially like Golden as a head coach. However, he has a lot to prove this season. Their recruiting class is underwhelming, ranking 10th in the SEC, with just two big men (Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon) entering the program. There is a lot of pressure on Pullin, Clayton and Kugel to carry the perimeter scoring. Florida has a high range of outcomes: SEC surprise team to absolute disaster.
How I’m Betting Florida: The Gators were not particularly great in the nonconference, going only 5-9 ATS. They failed to cover five of their first seven games, including a prophetic outright home loss to Florida Atlantic. Last year’s team had Colin Castleton, this year’s team does not. Hard to back the Gators early in the season with so many new faces. I believe in Golden, but I think it will take time to find consistent success this season.
