NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than two weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences and mid-major teams. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the Liberty Flames. Head coach Ritchie McKay has built a Liberty program that now expects to reach the NCAA Tournament every season. The Flames have won 22 or more games for six straight seasons, with two NCAA appearances, while qualifying for a third during the COVID shortened 2019-2020 season. They now join a revamped Conference USA that was reduced from 11 to nine teams, including four new programs.
Can we expect McKay’s magic to continue in Liberty’s first season in Conference USA?
Let’s continue our betting previews with the Liberty Flames.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
Conference: C-USA
Head Coach: Ritchie McKay (11th season)
2022-2023 Record: 27-9 (15-3)
ATS: 18-13-2
O/U: 17-16
Projected Starters: G Colin Porter; G Kaden Metheny; G Kaden Metheny; F Shiloh Robinson; F Kyle Rode;
Preview: Liberty heads to Conference USA after enjoying a fantastic tenure in the Atlantic Sun. Five years in the A-Sun, four conference titles for Liberty. Last season, the Flames tied Kennesaw State for the regular-season title but lost to the Owls in the conference tournament, settling for a trip to the NIT. Liberty will need to adjust to life without Darius McGhee, the three-time ASUN Player of the Year and all-time ASUN career scoring leader. While Kyle Rode and Shiloh Robinson returned, the Flames lost valuable depth in the transfer portal with Blake Preston and Isiah Warfield leaving. The two-game sweep by Kennesaw State was surprising and signals a year with a wide range of outcomes for outstanding head coach, Ritchie McKay. Switching conferences is always a disadvantage due to lack of familiarity with styles. However, the biggest adjustment may come from Liberty’s opponents who need to acclimate to the Flames’ deliberate and disciplined formula for success.
Key Player: Kyle Rode
The super-senior forward still holds the distinction as the highest-rated recruit in Liberty history. Rode has improved his scoring average each season, while maintaining 40% 3P accuracy for the second straight season. No Liberty player crested 10 PPG besides McGhee, which means Rode needs to approach the 13 PPG average to keep the Flames near the top of the ASUN race. He is a great leader whose selflessness needs to become more selfish.
Projection: McKay has thrived as a Tony Bennett-disciple, bringing a disciplined style of play that is predicated on offensive efficiency and superior half-court defense. However, this is a very different Liberty roster that won’t be able to thrive off 3P shots created by McGhee drives. Liberty has shot over 37% from 3P range over the past three seasons and will need to keep that level of efficiency against a harder collection of conference opponents. McKay always constructs a solid non-conference schedule, and this year’s battles against Furman, Florida Atlantic and Charleston are no exceptions.
How I’m Betting Liberty: The Flames were just 17-21-1 ATS in the ASUN the past two years. Also interesting, Liberty was 11-6-1 to the over in conference games two years ago but only 9-12 last year. I think that is by design, as their overall offensive production dropped, especially from the 3P line. Two years ago, Liberty shot 41.6% from deep in conference play, but this past year they were only 34.9%. Imagine that number without McGhee? I expect their offense to struggle and Liberty to massively slow the pace this year in the spirit of McKay’s mentor, Bennett. I will be fading the Flames to start the year, but backing their unders while they adjust without McGhee, especially against C-USA opponents who will struggle to adjust to their style.
