NBA Best Bets of the Day (10/24)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Four times a week, I’ll be writing previews of the night’s NBA action offering my projections, thoughts and even some bets.

Basketball is back! Tuesday starts the 2023-24 NBA season, and I’m sure you’ve loved all the previews and futures betting, but we finally have some real action to handicap and enjoy. The start of the season is tough because we don’t have any data for the current rosters, but in tough times come value.

It will take the market time to catch up to what’s going on, so be careful, but don’t afraid to attack at the beginning of the NBA season. It’s TNT Tuesday and we have two matchups of the Western Conference’s best teams. Let’s jump into the games and see if there’s any value to be mined.

NBA Best Bets for Tuesday

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

Current Line – Nuggets -5, 228.5
My Projection – Nuggets 116, Lakers 110
Key Injuries – Jarred Vanderbilt is out

It’s banner night in Denver! The reigning champs will begin the game with a lavish ceremony that will include a video highlight reel, a speech or two, and the raising of their championship banner. This creates an odd vibe for the game. The timing between warming up and tipping off gets thrown off it’s normal rhythm and professional athletes are very much creatures of habit. We’ve seen these games start clunky. It’s also an odd start time with a 5:30 p.m. local tip. That leads me to playing a first quarter and first half under. The pace for game should be high, especially if this goes the same way their playoff series did, but I’m expecting efficiency to be lower to start. By the second half, I think we’ll see things regress to normal and a point total close to what the market thinks. Nothing on the side for me. The Denver Nuggets are the better squad, but the Lakers improved themselves in the offseason and are a different animal with LeBron and AD healthy and fully focused. My spread is close to market, so just the totals for me.

Bets

First Quarter Under 58.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM)
First Half Under 116.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors

Current Line – Warriors -2.5, 234
My Projection – Warriors 120, Suns 119
Key Injuries – Draymond Green and Bradley Beal are out. Devin Booker is probable.

It’s Chris Paul night in Golden State/ The newest Warrior debuts against his former team. With Draymond Green out, I expect Paul to get the start and get a lot of work. If that’s the case, we need to look at some Paul props. His point total is 11.5 and I’m happy to be the over there, and he’s +1800 to score the first backet. Let’s get both of those tickets in our pocket. The other angle I tonight is the Suns team total over 116.5. This Phoenix offense has the potential to be one of the best in NBA history. Think back to the KD Nets teams and not only how efficient they were, but also how quickly they played. I expect Phoenix to be a great over team and to be betting their team total over for as long as I can do it at 118.5 or less. The market will adjust, but hopefully we can play this angle for a few weeks before we start seeing numbers close to 120. I don’t mind the full game over at all, but I think the Suns team total is the better angle. Chris Paul may slow down Golden State a bit, especially early in the season before Kerr can adjust which hurts the game total.

Bets

Chris Paul Over 11.5 Points (-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chris Paul to Score the First Basket (+1800, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Phoenix Suns Team Total Over 116.5 (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)