NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the ACC. Always competitive each season, the ACC is regularly among the nation’s top conferences with annual Final Four contenders Duke, Virginia and North Carolina. Last season, Miami made their first ever Final Four, guided by the March magic of head coach Jim Larrañaga. There are 15 teams in the ACC, making it the largest of all the power conferences. The critics continue to cite the weakness of the bottom ACC teams, which directly contributes to its sixth overall preseason ranking by KenPom. However, it still holds true that the top teams in the ACC will always have a chance at a Final Four run.
Let’s continue with our betting preview for the Clemson Tigers.
2023-2024 Clemson Tigers Betting Preview
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Brad Brownell (14th season)
2022-2023 Record: 23-11 (14-6)
ATS: 17-16-1
O/U: 21-13
Projected Starters: G Chase Hunter; G Joseph Girard III; F Jack Clark; F Ian Schieffelin; C PJ Hall
Head coach Brad Brownell enters his 14th season with a pedigree of sustained regular season success in the challenging hoops environment at Clemson. He returns 61.7% of his minutes but needs to make the NCAA Tournament.
After winning at Florida State 82-81 at the end of January, the Tigers were 18-4 overall and 10-1 in the ACC. However, three straight losses and a second-round ACC tournament exit left them outside the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season. The issue last season was Clemson’s soft nonconference schedule, which produced a two-point loss at South Carolina and a neutral court loss to Loyola Chicago. That problem has been addressed with true road games at Pittsburgh, Alabama and Memphis. The Tigers return all-ACC center PJ Hall and brought in two transfers that should start in Joseph Girard (Syracuse) and Jack Clark (NC State).
Key Player: PJ Hall
PJ Hall returned to form after missing time with a knee injury and added the 3P shot to his offensive arsenal. Hall improved from 30.3% on 78 3PA, to 39.8% of 83 3PA last year. Hall has the makings of a 1st Team All-ACC level season and is the absolute critical piece to an NCAA Tournament run for the Tigers.
Projection: Brownell has done a solid job with Clemson, but his teams have often suffered close road losses against the ACC’s elite. This is a pivotal year for the veteran head coach who is already dealing with injuries to Clark and sharpshooter Alex Hemenway may not be ready for the start of the season. The Tigers need to pile up some nonconference wins to help build their NCAA Tournaments hopes, so avoiding an early loss is critical. Girard brings a steady leader who can make open shots against defenses that focus exclusively on stopping Hall.
How I’m Betting Clemson: I am not a Brownell fan who has been trying to change the Tigers offensive style the past two seasons. Clemson ranked 248th or worse in adjusted tempo in every season of Brownell’s tenure until 2021-2022. Last year they ranked 135th, including third best among ACC teams, and that translated to a 62% rate (21-13) to the over last season. Will Brownell revert to his slow, methodical ways in a critical season? I’m backing overs to the start the year and fading Clemson in the nonconference after a 4-8 ATS record last year.
