NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is almost a week away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences and mid-major teams. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway has been extremely successful at building a talented roster. Entering his sixth season leading the Tigers, Hardaway has continued to stockpile elite freshman and talented transfers, but his teams have disappointed in the NCAA Tournament. Memphis always played well against perennial AAC powerhouse Houston, one of the few teams that can make that claim. While Houston is now in the Big 12, the Tigers are still looking up at preseason AAC favorite Florida Atlantic. They enter the season with some roster question marks, but again have the potential for a deep run in the NCAA Tournament in March.
Let’s continue our betting previews with the Memphis Tigers.
2023-2024 Memphis Tigers Betting Preview
Conference: AAC
Head Coach: Penny Hardaway (6th season)
2022-2023 Record: 26-9 (13-5)
ATS: 17-17-1
O/U: 19-16
Projected Starters: G Jahvon Quinerly; G Caleb Mills; G Jaykwon Walton; F David Jones; F Jordan Brown
Head coach Penny Hardaway enters his sixth season with the Memphis program continuing its upward trajectory. The Tigers have increased their win total for three straight seasons, finishing at 26-9 last year with an AAC Tournament Championship. Per Bart Torvik, Memphis returns just 9% of last year’s minutes, but adds a treasure chest full of eight players via the transfer portal. There are two massive variables for the Tigers, as the status of freshman Mikey Williams and 27-year-old DeAndre Williams are still uncertain. Regardless, the Tigers have an abundance of talent and could have made a Final Four run if not for a heartbreaking first-round loss to Florida Atlantic in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
Key Player: Jahvon Quinerly
Quinerly is a fascinating player that brings a high variance of possible outcomes to Memphis. He struggled to acclimate to a veteran Villanova team as a freshman subsequently choosing to transfer to Alabama. Quinerly had a superb season as a reserve for the Crimson Tide, averaging 12.9 PPG while shooting 43.3% 3P on 4.0 attempts per game. He struggled with efficiency as a starter in 2021-2022, shooting just 28.1% from 3P with 3.0 turnovers per game. Last season he returned to his reserve role and saw a decrease in his production across the board. Quinerly will be expected to lead this group and bring a high ceiling, but he needs to limit his turnovers in Hardway’s up-tempo attack. Memphis has a high tolerance for turnovers, but the first-year Alabama Quinerly makes this team a Final Four contender.
Projection: There are so many unknowns that it’s hard to project Memphis without having closure on their personnel. DeAndre Williams’ return would be huge for their interior rebounding and scoring, and Mikey Williams was a Top 40 recruit nationally. However, it seems unlikely that one, if not both, or those players will never see the floor for the Tigers. Forward David Jones brings leadership and all-around talent on both ends of the floor. The Tigers will always be fun to watch and bring a strong ceiling yet again.
How I’m Betting Memphis: The Tigers are a hard team to back ATS, particularly because of their woeful free throw shooting. Last year, Memphis actually ranked 67th in the nation at 76.7%, but how much of that was a result of Kendric Davis superb 85.4% accuracy at the line? I will be fading Memphis early, especially with so many moving personnel parts. It is worth noting the Tigers are 15-11 (57.7%) to the over in nonconference matchups the past two seasons. I suspect their high-level of defensive efficiency will take a while to reach with their wealth of new players.
