NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is almost a week away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences and mid-major teams. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
It was an incredible season for San Diego State, as the Aztecs won the Mountain West regular season title and conference tournament title and reached the NCAA Tournament championship game. Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs used defensive pressure and relentless rebounding to earn a one-point win over Creighton and Florida Atlantic in two of the best games of the season. San Diego State is again the conference favorite, returning their starting backcourt of Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler. Can the Aztecs recreate last year’s success built on their unique defensive style?
Let’s continue our betting previews with the San Diego State Aztecs.
2023-2024 San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview
Conference: Mountain West
Head Coach: Brian Dutcher (7th season)
2022-2023 Record: 32-7 (15-3)
ATS: 19-17-2
O/U: 16-22
Projected Starters: G Lamont Butler; G Darrion Trammell; G Micah Parrish; G Reese Waters; F Jaedon Lee
It all came together for Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs, who parlayed a third regular-season Mountain West title in the last four seasons into their first-ever trip to the Final Four. Dutcher nailed the transfer portal, enjoying the production of two highly touted transfers: Darrion Trammell (Seattle) and Micah Parrish (Oakland). The Aztecs defense remained stout, finishing fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom after a No. 2 overall finish in 2021-2022. However, San Diego greatly improved their offensive efficiency, ranking 75th overall and shooting 38.2% from 3P range inside the Mountain West. They lose several key players in Matt Bradley (12.5 PPG), Keshad Johnson (7.6 PPG), and Nathan Mensah (6.1 PPG), but return a solid nucleus that will be hungry to solidify last year’s historic season.
Key Player: Lamont Butler
When you hit a game-winner in the 2023 Final Four, providing your program an opportunity to win a National Championship, you become the key player for the following season. Along with being one of the top defensive guards in the nation, Butler is a timely, game-changing, event creator as a basketball player. Nothing is more valuable than being efficient inside a defensive/pace controlling basketball construct.
Projection: Last year’s projection was prophetic:
I have really grown to love this San Diego State team, which has married dominant regular-seasons with limited postseason runs. This year’s roster construction could change that narrative, especially with a unique style that gives trouble to high-flying offenses. The Mountain West put four teams in the NCAA Tournament last year, and this season’s Aztecs squad could be the one that makes the first deep run since Steve Fisher’s 2013-2014 team.
The challenge with this year’s team is losing so many players that fit specific roles such as Bradley the leading scorer and Mensah the defensive presence on the interior. This team needs Butler and Trammell to take steps forward on offense, with Jaedon Lee growing into the Mensah role while avoiding foul trouble.
How I’m Betting San Diego State: The Aztecs are 41-29 (58.6%) to the under over the past two seasons, 22nd best in the nation. San Diego State was also a stifling 14-7 to the under in Mountain West games last season, illustrating their ability to exert their pace on even their most familiar opponents. They have been inconsistent against the spread, making game totals a better early-season focus with the loss of so many core players.
