NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
49ers vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-125) after it opened @ 248.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
- In this week’s contest, Joe Burrow is expected by the projection model to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.1.
- Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- Joe Burrow’s 214.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a noteworthy regression in his passing talent over last season’s 289.0 rate.
- Joe Burrow’s passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 69.4% to 62.5%.
- Joe Burrow’s 5.53 adjusted yards-per-target this year indicates an impressive regression in his throwing efficiency over last year’s 7.6% figure.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, allowing 6.51 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
