NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the ACC. Always competitive each season, the ACC is always among the nation’s top conferences with annual Final Four contenders Duke, Virginia and North Carolina. Last season, Miami made their first ever Final Four, guided by the March magic of head coach Jim Larranaga. There are 15 teams in the ACC, making it the largest of all the power conferences. The critics continue to cite the weakness of the bottom ACC teams, which directly contributes to its sixth overall preseason ranking by KenPom. However, it still holds true that the top teams in the ACC will always have a chance at a Final Four run.
Here’s our betting preview for the NC State Wolfpack.
North Carolina State Betting Preview
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Kevin Keatts (7th Season)
2022-2023 Record: 23-11 (12-8)
ATS: 16-16-1
O/U: 17-17
Projected Starters: G DJ Horne; G Casey Morsell; G Jayden Taylor; F Mohamed Diarra; F D.J. Burns
Preview: Head coach Kevin Keatts had the season he needed to have after entering last year on the hot seat. The Wolfpack produced 23 wins and an NCAA Tournament appearance, the second in Keatts’ tenure at Raleigh. NC State found success in the transfer portal and will try to replicate that again this season. They need scorers to emerge, as the Wolfpack lost over 34 PPG with Jarkel Joiner (17 PPG) and Terquavion Smith (17.9 PPG), and they need Arizona State product DJ Horne (12.5 PPG) and Butler transfer Jayden Taylor (12.9 PPG) to fill that massive void in the backcourt.
Key Player: Casey Morsell
Improved shooting metrics coupled with low turnover numbers and strong perimeter defense make Casey Morsell one of the best returning guards in the ACC. The 6-foot-3 fifth-year guard shot a career-best 41% from deep on 190 3PA, providing crucial floor spacing for 275-pound interior force, D.J. Burns. Morsell will be asked to do a bit more offensively while maintaining his defensive ball-hawking (1.1 SPA) ability.
Projection: Keatts needed results, and he achieved them with statement wins throughout the season. NC State posted an 84-60 home destruction of Duke, 73-69 road win at Virginia Tech and 77-69 home victory over rival North Carolina. What will the Wolfpack do for an encore this season? NC State was bolstered by a 7-1 non-conference start and finished 10-1 overall against non-ACC opponents. Their only loss was 80-74 to Kansas at Atlantis in November. That is the main reason they found their way into the NCAA Tournament, which makes a repeat performance critical in 2023-2024. I project the Wolfpack to battle all season, but they will likely struggle to win close games.
How I’m Betting NC State: The Wolfpack are just 18-21-1 (46.2%) ATS in non-conference matchups since 2019, despite having veteran teams and a strong backcourt last season. That makes this group vulnerable, especially in tricky road matchups at Mississippi and Boston College. Even their opening game at home against the high-scoring Citadel team will be a tough 20-point spread to cover. My key focus will be on totals, as the Wolfpack have not excelled defensively under Keatts, residing at 16-7 (70%) to the over in non-conference matchups the past two seasons. The jury is still out on Keatts, and I remain skeptical on the Wolfpack after losing a strong backcourt. Remember: NC State was the second worst team ATS two years ago, finishing just 7-25 (21.9%) to the number.
