NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/13)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Happy In-Season NBA Tournament Monday! We’ve had 16 IST games so far, and although it’s not a big enough sample to tell us anything definitively, there are a few things from the early results that caught my eye. To start, overs have done well, with full game overs going 10-6 against the closing pre-game total and second-half overs going 9-7. Favorites are 3-12-1 against the closing spread and all three teams that covered were at home.

These trends could be driven by the focus on point differential, which is a tiebreaker for the IST standings, by teams in these games. Often in the regular season you will see a team losing let up and bring in their deep players late in games. We’ve seen the opposite in the In-Season Tournament. Teams have kept their starters in later in losses which creates more points for the total and gives the underdog a better chance to cover their spread.

Again, 16 games is a small sample size, but we’ll keep an eye on these and see if they continue or shift in the coming weeks. Let’s dive into the four games we get Monday. Of course, you can catch the video version of this preview on the FTNBets YouTube channel.

NBA Best Bets for Monday

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

Current Line – Celtics -9.5, 222
My Projection – Celtics 115, Knicks 104
Key Injuries – None

This is the second of four matchups between these teams this season. They played each other in their first game of the season, and it was a tight contest won by the Celtics 108-104. The Knicks shot poorly but generated 12 extra possessions with offensive rebounds and turnovers that kept them close until the very end. Monday, is a lot different for New York, playing for the second night in a row. This is their third back-to-back spot so far — the first two they won game one comfortably and then failed to score 90 points in game two. That’s a small sample size, but it lines up with what we saw from this team last year and what we’ve seen from Tom Thibodeau’s teams in the past. The coach asks a lot of his players and keeps them on the floor to play a lot of minutes. That style can be rough on players and make playing twice in 24 hours difficult.

Boston has been at home Thursday and is playing well. If they can do a better job of keeping the Knicks off the offensive glass and not lose the turnover battle, this should be a fairly easy victory for the Celtics. There are two wagers I like in this contest. The first is pretty simple and I imagine expected based on the pre-amble. Let’s bet on the Knicks team total under 106.5. Unders can be tough in blowouts, but this number is at least a few points too high. I may add an alternate under later, so check the FTN Discord #nba-plays channel for that, but under 106.5 is a good wager for now. The second is a same game parlay, which combines the Celtics alternate spread of -14.5 with under on the alternate total of 215.5. A good chunk of my projections show a big Celtics win with a low total. Generally, a team has to score a lot to cover a 14.5 point spread, but given how much I expect the Knicks to struggle, the Celtics can cover that number without having to score even 115 points. At +525, this is worth a 0.5U wager.

Bets

New York Knicks Team Total Under 106.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Same Game Parlay Celtics -14.5 & Under 215.5 (+525, DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.5U

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors

Current Line – Raptors -9.5, 229.5
My Projection – Raptors 119, Wizards 107
Key Injuries – OG Anunoby and Gary Trent are questionable.

As I have said before and will say again, you don’t have to watch every game you bet on. With that in mind, I present to you Raptors/Wizards. Washington played a few fun games against the Charlotte Hornets but have struggled mightily in their other games. The Wizards are top in the league in pace with a solid lead over the second-fastest team, but Monday they face the third-slowest team in the league in a terrible schedule spot. This will be the second game for the Wizards in as many days, and they haven’t played a game without having traveled beforehand since Oct. 30, over two weeks ago. Washington gets to go home after this game for a few days, but their level of fatigue should be high. The Raptors are not only slow themselves but do a good job of controlling their opponents pace as well forcing them to play slow as well. Toronto with a roster full of long, athletic defenders matches up very well against Washington defensively even if OG Anunoby can’t play. As mentioned in the last game, betting unders in blowout games can be dangerous, but unless the Wizards somehow trick the Raptors into running, I can’t see them scoring 110 points. I’ll wager under on the Washington team total at 109.5.

Bet

Washington Wizards Team Total Under 109.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

Current Line – Bucks -9.5, 229.5
My Projection – Bucks 122, Bulls 110
Key Injuries – Alex Caruso is doubtful. Damian Lillard and Patrick Williams are probable.

As is the theme for Monday, we have another 9.5 favorite at home against a team that with a bad schedule situation. The Bulls played Sunday, and this is a one-road game trip for them. Now going from Chicago to Milwaukee is a less than two-hour drive, but it’s been a tough trip in the past as the Bulls won just two of their last 13 games in the Bucks’ arena. Chicago will likely be without what I believe to be their best player in Alex Caruso. If you look at minutes with DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, there is a stark difference in performance with or without Caruso on the floor. The team’s offense is 7 points better without Caruso, but the defense is 20 points worse. That’s a 13-point difference, and I don’t think I have to tell you how big that really is. Caruso is arguably the best perimeter guard defender in the NBA and although he’s not a dynamic scorer, he moves well and is shooting over 40% from beyond the arc. Compounding this problem is the presence of Damian Lillard, who is probable to play after a few days off resting his calf. Without Caruso, there is no one on the Bulls roster who can slow down Lillard which means lots of points for Dame and lots of points for the Bucks in general. I’m betting on both. I’m playing Dame to score 25-plus, 30-plus and 35-plus, and I’d play 40-plus if any book were willing to offer it. I’m also betting the Bucks team total over 119.5. I have them projected at 122 and there’s upside in that number. 

Bets

Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 119.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Damian Lillard 25+ Points (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook) 0.5U
Damian Lillard 30+ Points (+230, FanDuel Sportsbook) 0.25U
Damian Lillard 35+ Points (+700, FanDuel Sportsbook) 0.25U

Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings

Current Line – Cavaliers -3, 221
My Projection – Cavaliers 113, Kings 107
Key Injuries – Isaac Okoro is out. De’Aaron Fox is doubtful.

Finally, a game with a reasonably close spread! Both teams had the day off Sunday, and although the Cavaliers are in the middle of a West Coast road trip, they’ve had ample rest between games to recover and adjust to the time zone. After losing their first three games without De’Aaron Fox (in which they averaged 96 points per game), the Kings won their last two, averaging 113 points in those victories. Domantas Sabonis was much better in the last two contests at creating offense for his teammates. I expect Monday to be much more difficult for him. The Cavaliers have two defenders that are tailor-made to slow down Sabonis. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will both have long stretches of defending Sacramento’s center, frustrating him with their length. If that’s the case, then two things become likely to me. The first, is not so difficult win for the road team. Cleveland has the tools to stop Sacramento’s best players and two great guards who should be able to get the shots they want on offense. Davion Mitchell can only guard one of Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell and only for so many minutes. I’m not sure which Cleveland guard does well, but I expect to see one of the two score 30-plus. The second thing I’m expecting tonight is a poor offensive performance from the Kings. I broke down what is likely to happen Sabonis, which will limit Sacramento’s ability to score. This could also be a look ahead game for the Kings who play long time division rival, the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday. This looks to be a great spot to back Cleveland and fade Sacramento.

Bets

Cleveland Cavaliers -3 (-110, BetMGM)
Sacramento Kings Team Total Under 109.5 (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)