NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/5)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Night two of the NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinals starts Tuesday, and night one was fantastic. The Boston Celtics did what they often do in elimination games and lost the game in the second half. Their offense comes to a screeching halt at the end of close games because they don’t have a player who can penetrate the hoop and create offense. Jayson Tatum is too passive and easy to guard when he tries to break down his opponent one-on-one.

The Pacers and star Tyrese Haliburton played well, but Boston has to be asking some tough questions if they want to avoid this in the postseason. The Pelicans peaked as we expected with their team finally healthy. They are going to be very dangerous if they can stay healthy and their defensive guards, Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado, can continue to shoot well. I talked about 2H under Monday. Generally, these kinds of games tighten up as teams grind out possessions more efficiently. Boston/Indiana went over the second half, which makes sense since the Celtics lost control and the Sacramento/New Orleans game stayed under in the second half.

We’ll keep an eye on that again Tuesday, and I’ll share those plays in the FTNBets Discord if I make them. Let’s get to two exciting matchups and see what bets we can make.

NBA Best Bets for Tuesday

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks

Current Line – Bucks -5, 230
My Projection – Bucks 116, Knicks 114
Key Injuries – None

The Bucks won all four of their group games and won East Group B, while the Knicks were able to reach a point differential of +42 with a record of 3-1 to be the Eastern Conference wild card. Their first matchup was close, with the Bucks winning 110-105 in Milwaukee. That game closed Bucks -5.5 with a total of 224.5. The total is up almost six points, which makes sense, although the first game did go under the total. These IST games have been more closely contested and high scoring, and scoring generally increases as the season progress. The spread hasn’t moved, which surprises me. I had the spread at 4 when they first played, and I would make it 2 Tuesday. Both teams have improved after slow starts to the season, but I think their results are comparable to one another. Milwaukee has more star power with Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but New York has better depth and versatility in their roster. The matchup tonight should be close. Mitchell Robinson can protect the rim and slow down Giannis when he gets below the free throw line. Julius Randle is shorter than Brook Lopez but will be able to use his speed to score on Lopez. Khris Middleton is far from 100% and could be outplayed by RJ Barrett. Lillard and his starting backcourt partner, Malik Beasley, are great on the offensive end and always hard to guard, but they might be the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA and could give up as many points, if not more, than they score. Overall, New York is better defensively and good enough on offense to keep this game close. My model makes it Knicks +2, so I’ll happily bet the +5 widely available. I’m also going to bet Jalen Brunson to score a lot of points. He scored 45 in their first matchup and could do it again. I took a unit and broke it up to place bets on Brunson 30+, 35+ and 40+ points.

Bets

New York Knicks +5 (-108, FanDuel Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jalen Brunson 30+ Points +140 (0.5U, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jalen Brunson 35+ Points +340 (0.3U, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jalen Brunson 40+ Points +1000 (0.2U at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers

Current Line – Lakers -1.5, 230
My Projection – Lakers 116, Suns 115
Key Injuries – Bradley Beal is out. LeBron James and Eric Gordon are questionable.

The Lakers won all four of their group play games and had the highest point differential at +74, 28 better more than second best. The Suns were the Western Conference wild card. This is a tough matchup to handicap, because each team has some clear advantages over their opponent. Devin Booker should have a huge game. Jarred Vanderbilt is set to return, but it’s hard to trust he’ll be at his best in his first game of the year after dealing with a heal injury. Kevin Durant and LeBron James have generally played each other close. Both have advantages on offense but can match each other’s positive impact albeit in a different manner. The Suns don’t have anyone that can guard Anthony Davis. Jusuf Nurkic has never been that guy and is certainly not that guy now. Phoenix may have a slight coaching edge, since Frank Vogel was the head coach of this Lakers squad in 2022 and may know more about them than most. It’s likely that secondary pieces like Austin Reaves or Grayson Allen will be the small difference that decides this game.

My projections are basically the same as the betting markets and I can’t see a real edge in those full game prices. Unfortunately, I have no bets there, but I do have a player prop I like. These games are being played at high levels and we’ve seen star players on the floor for more minutes they than usually play. In general, the best players have hit or exceeded their high for minutes in a game in an In-Season Tournament game. I expect to see Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and maybe even Anthony Davis play 38-plus minutes with at least one of them getting to 40+. It looks like the market has adjusted properly for Booker and Durant. Their props numbers are slightly higher than we normally see and slightly higher than projected. Although I like the matchup for Davis, his betting props look close to accurate. I do like LeBron’s overs though. He has played less minutes overall this season, but he’s had several games where he’s pushed close to 40 minutes to help the Lakers win. Unless this game is a blowout, which seems unlikely, I expected LeBron to play 38-plus minutes and fill up the stat sheet. I’ll bet his Points+Rebounds+Assists total over and a give him to have a triple double a little sprinkle.