NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 18

Week 18 marks the end of this Survivor picks journey. Assuming you followed my advice — except those three times — you should be seeing your Eliminator trophy within the week, if you didn’t already in the recent weeks or months.

But even if you didn’t, we’ll always share the memories. Memories of Dak Prescott’s preference for his Sleep Number 360 Smart Bed. Memories of Nathaniel Hackett’s brilliant plan to make $80,000 per week to not coach the Broncos. Memories of another pop star and another football player finding true love. And too many more to name — since that would take more time, and I’m trying to leave work by 4.

But it isn’t quite time to reminisce. First, I need to cover my last five Survivor locks of the 2023 season.

Week 18 NFL Eliminator Picks

Cincinnati Bengals

-4.5 vs. Browns

Los Angeles Chargers

-3 vs. Chiefs

Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained to reporters why the play-versus-rest decision could be so complicated, even for a team like his 49ers that are locked into the No. 1 seed in the NFC. “When you give guys the game off, practice changes too. That can end up hurting guys a lot and you end up just developing bad habits … Also, it does give some guys a chance to get healthy … but then other people have got to double up and do a lot more because you only get two guys off a practice squad also. If you want to get more than two off practice squad, we’ve got to cut people on a roster and then we don’t get those guys, just to get those guys up…That’s all that stuff you’ve got to balance out and that’s why there’s not a clear-cut decision on anything.”

So maybe Shanahan plays Trent Williams this Sunday. But Kevin Stefanski already announced that he would rest Joe Flacco and his other star Browns. And I doubt Andy Reid would play Patrick Mahomes and his other star Chiefs, not after they missed out on the playoff bye week. And presumably not when they have commercials to shoot, and when he has nuggies to steal.

Give me Jake Browning and Trenton Irwin over Jeff Driskel and David Bell, and give me Easton Stick and Alex Erickson over Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bell.

Pittsburgh Steelers

-4 at Ravens

You probably realized the league set the Week 18 schedule to maximize the incentive for teams to try hard to potentially make the playoffs or improve their seeding. But you might not have realized that the league is conspiring to get in and advance its most popular teams to improve their playoff television ratings. Don’t believe me? Then how else would you explain the league attaching Brad Allen’s referee crew to Saturday’s Steelers-Ravens game the week after they “blew” the eligible-receiver two-point conversion call that, oops, let the Dallas Cowboys jump the Lions and Eagles to land the No. 2 seed? Those being the same Cowboys that played in four of the five highest-rated regular season games in 2022 and, this season, are a perfect 8-0 at home versus 3-5 on the road and dramatically more likely to advance if they play their playoff games at home in Dallas?

But what does that have to do with Steelers-Ravens? Oh, Sandra. If the Steelers win and the Jaguars (or Bills) lose, the Steelers make the playoffs. And the Steelers are a popular, public team. They pulled a top-20 television broadcast in 2022 — not even just a top-20 NFL broadcast — with their previous season’s Wild Card loss to the Chiefs. And they did so as a 12.5-point underdog. Everyone knew the Steelers would lose that game by 20-plus points, and they watched it anyway. In contrast, the Jaguars failed to make the top 50 television broadcasts in 2022 despite their jump from worst to first and despite the breakout of their No. 1 quarterback pick Trevor Lawrence. They aren’t a public team. I doubt they are even a bloke’s team, or whatever they call them in London. And so, in short, don’t be surprised when Brad and crew hit Jadeveon Clowney and Justin Madubuike with a few questionable roughing-the-passer penalties to extend some Mason Rudolph drives.

And don’t be surprised when this Big J Journalist wins the Investigative Reporting Pulitzer.

Take the Steelers by a field goal.

New England Patriots

-2.5 vs. Jets

I shared last week that I resolved to be less thirsty for revenge in 2024. And while I am promptly writing another edition of the Revenge Game rankings, I think I am true to that word because I feel a bit choked up that this will be my last revenge rankings of the 2023 NFL season.

1. Woody Johnson via Bill Belichick, Patriots vs. Jets

Jets fans may not enjoy their impending 16th straight loss to the Patriots, but they should accept it as one of the all-time 4-D chess moves by an NFL owner. By having his then former Patriots coordinator and now former Jets head coach Eric Mangini tattle on Belichick for Spygate in 2008, Johnson set in a motion a near-two-decade plan that will result in his division rivals forgoing a chance to draft their next Tom Brady in either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye to instead smush the Jets 31-6 in an otherwise meaningless Week 18 matchup of a pair of non-playoff teams.

2. T.J. Hockenson via Johnny Mundt, Vikings at Lions

The Vikings could have lived with the veteran side of an arguable win-win trade with the Lions that netted the former team their star tight end T.J. Hockenson and spurred the latter team to draft a replacement in Sam LaPorta who may be the next Rob Gronkowski. But now that Hockenson will be 27 and returning from a torn ACL the next time he plays, it’s looking bleak. The Vikings will have to hope Hockenson’s replacement Mundt can catch his second touchdown in two weeks — and just third touchdown in seven professional seasons — this Sunday. And Hockenson may need to cash on that long-shot touchdown bet to secure a retirement portfolio.

3. Jarrett Stidham, Broncos at Raiders

How many touchdowns does a Day 3 quarterback need to throw in his career before he can cry “Revenge Game” when he faces a team that let him leave in free agency? Because when Jarrett Stidham throws three against the Raiders Sunday, he’ll make it to 10 for his career.

4. Arden Key, Titans vs. Jaguars

Before his first matchup with his former Jaguars team, Arden Key detailed to reporters how his Titans defense could neutralize Trevor Lawrence by taking away his first reads. And then Lawrence threw for two and ran for two touchdowns, and the Jags beat the Titans by 20 points. If Key is still upset a month and a half later, I assume he is being so quietly. Or just hoping for another C.J. Beathard week.

5. Baker Mayfield, Bucs at Panthers

I’m sure Baker Mayfield would love to beat the Panthers team that let him walk to draft a somehow even shorter Bryce Young and take the Bucs to the playoffs this Sunday. But I doubt it’s his sole focus. Mayfield took an apparent shot to the ribs last weekend that was either so violent or so poorly officiated that the NFL seems to have scrubbed it from Twitter. And the former first-round quarterback will have to negotiate that injury to perpetuate the narrative of his bounceback season — that rests entirely on the four touchdowns he threw on the No. 27 Packers pass defense — and secure a contract extension.

–

Congratulations on the 2024 Patriots starting quarterback job, Jimmy Garoppolo!

Carolina Panthers

+5.5 vs. Bucs

Could the column have ended anyotherway?

It isn’t about Baker Mayfeild’s rib injury. I expect the veteran to play Sunday even after he skipped Wednesday’s practice. But the Panthers defense isn’t the cushy opponent matchup that you might expect it to be. Derrick Brown, Brian Burns, Frankie Luvu and Jaycee Horn are real dudes, and the Panthers defense has allowed similar 2,972 passing yards versus 2,973 and 19 passing touchdowns versus 20 to opposing quarterbacks as the celebrated Browns defense, if with half as many sacks (21 versus 43) and interceptions (8 versus 17).

The main Panthers question is on offense, where Bryce Young went from a new hope when he threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns against the same awful Packers defense that propped up the Baker Mayfield renaissance narrative in Week 16 to a phantom menace when he threw for 112 yards and an interception against a competent Jaguars defense last Sunday. So where is the Bucs defense on that spectrum? The nerds would tell you in the middle as an average 15th in pass defense DVOA. But as a much cooler person who watches film — although not of the Bucs since Tom Brady retired, I’m too cool for that — I’m not so sure. Devin White was the star Bucs defender when they won the Super Bowl a few years ago, and so I’m assuming he still is now. But after a season of contract bickering with the team, White found himself in a defensive rotation with third-year teammate K.J. Britt last Sunday. It was the first time the veteran played less than 80% of snaps in a healthy game in his career. And I can only assume that means the Bucs defense is cratering, and Young will light them up for another 300-yard, two-touchdown performance.

And I have a sense for these things. How many other analysts picked the Panthers to win when they actually did in Weeks 8 and 15? I think third time is the charm in Week 18. And if it is, then the drinks are on David Tepper.

Scott’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Scott’s Record: 14-3