UFC Vegas 86 MMA Betting Odds (2/10)

Another fight week gives us another opportunity to be great. This week’s MMA slate features Joe Pyfer and Jack Hermansson as the main event. Pyfer has been on a meteoric rise since setting the tone for last year’s contender series with a win that had Dana White imploring future contenders to “Be Joe Pyfer” if they hoped to get a contract. “Be Joe Pyfer” carried Pyfer into the big show, and three devastating finishes later, he is in his first main event slot against his toughest test to date, “The Joker.”

The co-main event features longtime vet Dan “50k” Ige and Andre “Touchy” Fili. Both fighters have had more valleys than peaks as of late and look to get back on track with a win this weekend. The main card has six fights, and each fight has a high probability of finishing inside the distance.

Violence is on the menu this week, and below, I’ve broken down each fight on the main card from a betting perspective. All odds are per FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Pyfer vs. Hermansson Odds

Joe Pyfer -280, Jack Hermansson +210

Old school vs. new school is the theme for this main event. Hermansson has been in the UFC since 2016, and before then, he made runs under the Cage Warriors and Bellator promotions. A wrestler at his core, Hermansson fights with a relentless pace and aggression that often drowns his opponents. His most recent fight against Roman Dolidze ended badly, as he was caught in a calf crusher and finished with ground and pound. Hermansson is 2-3 in his last five fights, with wins over Chris Curtis and Edmen Shahbazyan and losses to Sean Strickland, Marvin Vetorri and Dolidze. He still has a lot of the gas left in the tank for a fighter nearing 40, averaging 5.13 significant strikes landed per minute, 3.69 significant strikes absorbed and 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. His striking after the Strickland fight improved, but his game remains the same, as his goal is to get the fight to the ground where he can swarm his opponent. The only advantages I can see for Hermansson are his experience and perhaps his gas tank.

This will be Pyfer’s first main event and first five-round fight in the UFC, and in his career, he has only gone the distance once. Pyfer’s gas tank will be something to look out for, but besides that, I believe that Pyfer has the edge with his power, speed and ability to grapple. His highest chance for a finish comes in the first three rounds of the fight. If he can manage his gas tank, he can cruise to victory by negating the takedown attempts from Hermansson and beating Hermansson to the punch. Pyfer averages 3.64 significant strikes landed per minute, just over one round of fight time, and nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes.

This seems like a step up in competition for Pyfer and the perfect setup. With a win over Hermansson, Pyfer solidifies his name, becomes a real contender in the middleweight division and jumps into the top 15. 

Best Bet: Joe Pyfer by KO/TKO or points -140 | Pyfer in Rounds 1, 2 or 3

Fili vs. Ige Odds

Andre Fili +142, Dan Ige -184

Ige has been with the UFC since 2018, and even though it has been a mixed bag of results thus far, the level of competition he has faced has been very high. Ige has always been in exciting fights, hence the nickname “50k,” this short-notice clash against fellow Hawaiian Andre Fili should be another banger. Originally scheduled to be between Lerone Murphy and Ige, this fight now serves as a good test for Fili, who, despite being in the UFC longer, has recently begun to find his stride and put his game together. Fili has been in the UFC since 2013. He’s only becoming a household name 10 years later because now he’s fighting with more consistency and confidence.

Fili has all the tools to become a superstar. Heck, outside of the octagon, he already has a music career and lives a badass life, and a win over Ige will catapult his career to a new level. Fili averages nearly 11 minutes of fight time, almost four significant strikes landed per minute, and while he instead gets the job done standing and banging, he also mixes in 2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes. Fili also has a four-inch height advantage and a three-inch reach advantage. Ige has had trouble against taller fighters who fight on the outside, but if he fights like he did against Damon Jackson and Nate Landwehr, I could see Ige stopping Fili late in the fight or winning on the scorecards. Ige has had shady decisions not go his way in the past, but with enough damage done when the two fighters exchange blows, I expect Ige to be the fighter that comes out on top. I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes to a split decision, but again, I will lean on the fact that this is a short-notice matchup for Fili, and between the two has more of a durability issue. I pick Ige to win in Round 3 by stoppage or points. 

Best Bet: Ige in Round 3 or decision +120

Potieria vs. Bryczek Odds

Ihor Potieria +140, Robert Bryczek -180

This matchup comes out of left field, but it doesn’t lack any firepower, as the duelist Potieria welcomes Bryczek to the UFC. Bryczek has been on the type of run that can’t be denied. He is currently 5-0 in his last five fights, with all wins happening in the first round. Potieria hasn’t been on the same type of run but has been growing and learning with every fight. His biggest win to date came against legend Marcio Shogun Rua — every fight besides that one, including his debut, has ended badly for the Ukrainian prospect. Potieria is moving down to 185 for this fight, and perhaps he hopes that his size advantage will help make the difference because, at light heavyweight, he seemed to be outclassed anytime the fight hit the ground. Potieria is a mixed bag in terms of his skill set, he strikes hard and fast but lacks any get-up-ability once Taken down and has durability issues as he’s been finished in all three of his losses. Bryczek is new in the UFC but not new in the MMA world, and the promotion Oktagon, where he has made a name for himself, doesn’t produce many bums. There aren’t many stats to go off since he hasn’t hit the main stage yet, but after watching everything I could find on Bryczek, it’s clear that he doesn’t need many strikes to end a fight. He doesn’t do well if he’s put on the back foot, but if this fight goes anything like his last five, then he won’t be taking too many back steps and should end this fight inside of the first round. Bryczek is also a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, giving him an edge against Potieria’s lackluster takedown defense. 

Best Bet: Robert Bryczek in Rounds 1 or 2 -130 

Tavares vs. Rodrigues Odds 

Brad Tavares +190, Gregory Rodrigues -250

The scariest part about Rodrigues is the fact that so far in his career, he has been known as a knockout artist when, in fact, he’s a high-level grappler at his base. Still, it has worked for Robocop and has made his run in the UFC exciting and lucrative. His last fight displayed his best form as his matchup favored him going into a slugfest, but to everyone’s surprise, he chose to grapple and eventually end the fight with ground and pound. Displaying an evolution that could be a problem for everyone in the middleweight division. Tavares, on the other hand, has been the picture of consistency for over a decade in the UFC. A well-rounded fighter, Tavares has always been able to outclass competition of the same level or worse. But anytime he has fought the division’s elite, he has run into roadblocks. His most recent fight against Chris Weidman went well because he won, but it showed how much Tavares is beginning to slow down. At 36 years old, Tavares still has high-level takedown defense, but his durability and chin are starting to falter. His recent two losses came against Driscus Du Plessis, which now looks excellent since Du Plessis is the champ, and Bruno Silva — against Silva, was sent to the shadow realm and did not look good once he was hurt. For this fight, I don’t think Rodrigues will have to lean on his new game plan of wrestling, considering how well Tavares defends takedowns, but once Robocop touches Tavares, the fight should be over. The pick is for Rodrigues to leave the wrestling and jiujitsu in his back pocket and go head-hunting against an aging Tavares. 

Best Bet: Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO or submission +155 | Tavares/Rodrigues under 2.5 rounds -108

Johnson vs. Flowers Odds

Michael Johnson -138, Darius Flowers +108

Flowers slammed his way into the UFC after a slam on the Contender Series injured his opponent, and Dana White was so impressed he signed him. Now, the extent of Flowers’ skill set ends with the slam. He’s a wrecking ball who operates with strength and athleticism. He got by on the regional scene with those attributes, but eventually, at this level, he will meet his ceiling. I think Johnson, even as a gatekeeper, will serve as a rude awakening for Flowers. Johnson has been a mainstay in the UFC for some time now. His career has been a roller coaster, but still, Johnson has done enough to be now considered a gatekeeper. The only problem is that Johnson is 2-3 in his last five, and a loss this weekend will put a nail in the coffin of his career. The highlights of his career were a six-fight win streak he had from 2013 to 2015, and he still is the only fighter to date to give Khabib his toughest fight. Outside of those stats, this fight against Flowers will hopefully reignite a winning streak for Johnson because if he continues on this route, he will eventually be let go if he isn’t sent to the shadow realm first. Still, the pick is Michael Johnson to get the win and lean on his experience enough to get past the chaos that Flowers will throw at him. Johnson’s durability may be his best quality at the moment, and because Flowers are so wild, I expect Johnson to sit back and wait for his moment to capitalize and end the night early. Flowers averages 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes but only four minutes of fight time. Johnson should be able to stop any takedowns coming his way and do enough to drag this into deep waters where Flowers will eventually drown. 

Best Bet: Michael Johnson by KO/TKO or points -130 

Viera vs. Petrosyan Odds 

Rodolfo Viera -125, Armen Petrosyan -102

Upon entering the UFC, Petrosyan was already considered one of the best strikers on the planet. He is known for his lightning-fast kicks and punches and, since entering the big show, has gone 4-1 if you count his win on the Contender Series. His only loss in the UFC is a cause for concern, though, entering this weekend — while Petrosyan is world-class when he’s standing, once the fight hits the ground like it did against Caio Borralho, he’s a fish out of water and needs to improve in that department if he hopes to one day become champ. Petrosyan averages nearly six significant strikes landed per minute and connects on over 50% of his strikes but has a dreadful 36% takedown defense.

Viera, since the day he joined the UFC, instantly became one of the best grapplers in the organization. His first loss in the UFC was perhaps the most embarrassing as his gas tank gave way after the first round, and he suffered a submission lost to a white belt compared to him. Now, since then, Rodolfo bounced back with a win over Dustin Stoltzfus and displayed a well-rounded attack, even though Stoltzfus didn’t want to stand much, so Vieras grappling shined through. His fight against Chris Curtis showed his most improvement because while he lost the battle, he could stand and bang and not just lean on his grappling. This fight against Ramen Petrosyan will be another great test for Viera to see where his game has evolved. At 34, Viera is not nearing retirement yet, but he also isn’t getting younger, so the evolution will be essential to see this weekend if he ever hopes to become champion. The pick for me is Rodolfo Viera, who, in my opinion, has put together his striking well enough to keep him safe compared to Petrosyan, who has to learn how to defend takedowns after having an entire career where he was praised for his striking. There is a world where Viera gasses out and succumbs to a late comeback from Petrosyan. Still, I have enough faith in the Jiujitsu of Viera to say that even if Petrosyan has success, it’ll be late in the fight, and he’ll have to get a finish to win after being dominated for the first two rounds on the ground. 

Best Bet: Rodolfo Viera ML -122 | Viera by submission or points -105