MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/8)
Josh Gross
We are just 18 days away from Selection Sunday. The college basketball betting world has turned its attention to NCAA Tournament Futures, investing in Final Four and National Championship wagers. March Madness bettors are looking for two things: first-round upsets and blue bloods that will make the Final Four.
Almost all bracket contests are structured to award more points for teams that reach the Final Four and National Championship. Having one of your Final Four teams suffer an early-round upset is the most frustrating way to see your bracket get busted. How can you avoid those early-round upsets?
Identify the frauds.
Here are some of the March Madness favorites to avoid when filling out your bracket.
March Madness Frauds
Creighton Bluejays
Record: 20-8
Big East: 11-6
Big Board Projection: 4-seed
Creighton is a metric darling, ranking 13th in the Net and top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. They possess impressive wins over Alabama (85-82 at home) and Connecticut (85-66 at home) but fit the perfect profile of a fraudulent NCAA Tournament team.
The Bluejays do not force turnovers, ranking dead-last in defensive turnover percentage. They also rely on 3-point shooting for their main source of points, generating the eighth-highest number of total shots (48.2%) from beyond the arc. Despite the presence of 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton produces only 46.7% of their points from inside the arc, ranking just 305th among all Division I programs.
Creighton also ranks just 266th in offensive rebounding percentage, struggling to generate second-chance opportunities off misses. Despite having players such as Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman and Steven Ashworth who can attack defenses off the dribble, they repeatedly choose to forgo layups and short jump shots for wild kick-out 3P attempts. That inevitably leads to high scoring variance and a very vulnerable top four seed in March Madness.
Auburn Tigers
Record: 21-6
SEC: 10-4
Big Board Projection: 4-Seed
The Tigers are a dominant force at home, where they are 13-1 this season. Auburn’s foundation is their superior defense, which ranks first overall in the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed.
For an athletic and aggressive team, Auburn has been simply average in rebounding against SEC opponents. They rank seventh and ninth in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage per KenPom, which led directly to two losses in their last five games. Both Florida and Kentucky outworked the Tigers on the boards, which put a greater scoring burden on their inconsistent 3P shooting. In those two losses, Auburn shot just 7-of-39 (17.8%) from deep, leading to two double-digit defeats.
The Tigers have some head-scratching road losses including a 69-64 nonconference stumble at Appalachian State. Given their microscopic 178th-ranked NC strength of schedule, I would avoid relying on the Tigers to go far in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Virginia Cavaliers
Record: 20-8
Big East: 11-6
Big Board Projection: 10-seed
While only projected as a 10-seed on my current Big Board, Virginia will likely have name recognition over any first-round opponent.
Don’t be fooled.
This Cavaliers team may have the worst offense of Tony Bennett’s tenure in Charlottesville. They rank dead-last among the ACC in both 2P percentage (45.6%) and free-throw shooting (64.4%). In a 49-47 home victory over Wake Forest, Virginia shot a mind-blowing 1-of-11 from the charity stripe.
I don’t see the seeding committee keeping the Cavaliers out of this tournament, especially with their third-best 11-6 mark in the ACC. However, Virginia has three losses in their last five games including a 74-63 upset by Pittsburgh at home and a 75-41 shellacking by Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. In that road loss to the Hokies, Virginia only managed to score 16 points in the first half.
Regardless of Virginia’s first-round opponent, the Cavaliers are in trouble during the NCAA Tournament’s opening weekend. If you are looking for a miracle March Madness run from the Cavaliers, you will be very disappointed.
