2024 MLB MVP Best Bets

It’s hard to believe the 2024 MLB season is here already, but we are now a couple weeks into spring training action, and Opening Day is just two weeks away with the Dodgers and Padres kicking off the year in South Korea. 

In this series, we will be looking at the MLB awards outright markets, including MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year to find the best value across the board. Today, we will take a look at the Most Valuable Player Award.

Note: Odds are all from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MVP Favorites

American League: Aaron Judge +550

To no surprise, the favorite in the American League is Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees. The 2022 MVP, when he hit a historic 62 home runs, didn’t quite match that in 2023, but that was largely in part due to a toe injury, which kept him sidelined for nearly two months. 

He finished his 2023 season with 37 home runs, and a .267/.406/.613 slash line in 106 games. Given Judge’s statistical ceiling, it’s no surprise to see him as the odds-on favorite to collect his second career MVP. Given the condition of his toe injury, which has been disclosed as something he will need to manage throughout the rest of his career, I will not be backing Judge here.

National League: Ronald Acuña Jr. +500

Much like Judge, it’s not surprising to see the reigning National League MVP as the favorite to add a second piece of hardware to his resume at just 26 years old. As we go through spring training, Ronald Acuña has been sent for an MRI on the right knee he had ACL surgery on a few years ago, though it was done as a precaution and was said to be minor enough that he would have continued playing had it been the regular season. Ultimately, it’s being described as “just soreness.” 

Still, this is something to monitor, given Acuna’s legs are a staple in his offense, coming off a 40/70 season, where he finished with 73 stolen bases. We haven’t even seen Acuna reach his peak, which is a scary thought, coming off a season in which he slashed .337/.416/.596, in addition to those 73 swiped bags. He’s the deserved favorite, but in a league that has added Shohei Ohtani, alongside Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis, Matt Olson and Bryce Harper, it may be best to search elsewhere for better value. 

AL MVP Pick: Yordan Alvarez +1100

Yordan Alvarez is entering his age-27 season, so he’s reaching the prime of his career. Sometime soon, he is going to have that outlier season where he peaks. Despite playing in just 114 games in 2023, Alvarez finished his season with 31 home runs, 97 RBI and a 4.5 WAR, while slashing .293/.407/.583. His strikeout rate dipped for the fourth consecutive season since cracking the big leagues in 2019, reaching a career-best 18.5% in 2023. Per MLB Savant, Alvarez finished in the 96th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. 

His xBA and xSLG both suggest he may have been a little unlucky in 2023 as well. I look at the top of the American League MVP market and see Judge, who can certainly still put together incredible numbers, but the chronic toe injury is concerning. Then there is Juan Soto, who is in a contract season in a ballpark with a short porch that has an opportunity to seriously boost his numbers. But he is +600, and his success is largely tied to Judge’s health, hitting in front of the Yankee captain. 

Corey Seager is +850, but his health heading into 2024 is a little worrisome. Then there’s Alvarez and Julio Rodríguez, both at +1100, and Kyle Tucker (+1500), who rounds out the group shorter than +2000. With Ohtani no longer in the American League, it’s a wide open race for MVP, and I view Alvarez’s ceiling as the second best, not far behind Judge, while getting over $5 more in value. 

NL MVP Pick: Bryce Harper +1200

In a season in which Ohtani will not throw a single pitch while he recovers from Tommy John Surgery, there should be value in the National League MVP race. Sure, Ohtani will still post excellent offensive numbers, but without his typical pitching stats to tack on, we will likely see voters go in a different direction, as they now have an excuse aside from voter fatigue. So, while Acuna may chase a 40/80, or dare I say 50/80 season, and the thought of a Dodgers record-breaking season as far as wins goes may be scary, I find myself seeing value in Bryce Harper at +1200. 

Harper has played fewer than 115 games in both of the previous two seasons, but it’s pretty difficult to ignore the numbers he’s seemingly capable of in any season. We could argue Harper was never 100% last season, as he recovered from offseason Tommy John surgery, and yet, in 126 games, he still managed to hit 21 home runs, 72 RBI and slash .293/.401/.499, while adding 11 stolen bases. He posted his worst ISO (.206) as a Phillie, but his 3.3 WAR in 126 games was on pace to be his second best in his five seasons with Philadelphia. Our Vlad Sedler has Harper projected to hit 38 home runs, with 108 RBI, 102 runs, 14 stolen bases, while hitting .291 with a .405 wOBA. 

There are a handful of excellent options in the National League, including Acuna, Ohtani, Freeman, Betts, Tatis and Olson. Tatis aside, that group of five are teammates on the two best teams in the National League. One interesting storyline could be stealing votes from each other, allowing someone to swoop in. One thing I know is Harper’s ceiling is as good as anyone’s, especially when playing half his games in Citizens Bank Ballpark, 10th in Ballpark Factor, T4th in wOBACon and fourth in home runs, per MLB Savant. At +1200, I see a little more value than the odds-on favorites in Acuna, Betts and Freeman.