2024 MLB Cy Young Odds and Best Bets

It’s hard to believe the 2024 MLB season is here already, but we are now a couple weeks into spring training action, and Opening Day is just two weeks away, with the Dodgers and Padres kicking off the year in South Korea.

In this series, we will be looking at the MLB awards outright markets, including MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year to find the best value across the board. Today, we will take a look at the Cy Young Award.

All odds are per Caesars Sportsbook.

2024 MLB Cy Young Favorites

American League: Gerrit Cole +590

We shouldn’t be surprised to see the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner as the favorite to repeat in 2024. Gerrit Cole has cemented himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last decade. In my experience betting this market, I have a tendency to stay away from the favorites. There is so much variance with pitchers — be it injuries, defense, etc. — that I find it is best to look at longshots with strong upside. Of course, the chalk is always capable of hitting, but if there is a market where longshots are most likely to hit in an awards market, it’s the Cy Young. As far as Cole goes, he was given the reputation of being a casualty to the loss of sticky stuff, but he managed to put that narrative to bed by posting his best HR/9 (0.86) since 2018 (0.85), despite seeing his worst strikeout rate (27%), since leaving the Pirates in 2018. Cole has thrown 611.1 innings over the last three seasons (postseason included), and I’m a bit worried about that workload catching up to him, making him an easy fade to win the 2024 American League Cy Young Award. 

National League: Spencer Strider +500

There is no pitcher with a higher ceiling than Spencer Strider, and his addition of a curveball, while increasing usage of his changeup, may just be what unlocks Strider to the next level. Just thinking that is a scary thought, given the numbers Strider has put together over the last two seasons as essentially a two-pitch guy. As I alluded to with Cole, I tend to fade favorites in this market, but Strider will be a far riskier fade, given his ceiling. It very well may take an injury for Strider to not collect his first piece of hardware in November.

2024 MLB Cy Young Best Bets

AL Cy Young Pick: Bailey Ober +12500

So I know I said I tend to lean toward longshots, but I don’t generally go this wide. I just simply cannot understand how Bailey Ober is 125/1 to win the American League Cy Young. For starters, if we look at some of the names alongside him, you get names such as Seth Lugo, Reid Detmers, Kenta Maeda, Yusei Kikuchi, Mason Miller, Bryce Miller, Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman and Chris Bassitt. That group of names range anywhere from 80/1 to 125/1. Now, if you compare Ober to his teammate Joe Ryan (+3500), here’s how the two finished in 2023:

• Player A: 29 GS, 14 QS, 11-10, 161.2 IP, 4.51 ERA, 3.53 xERA, 29.3% K%, 5.1% BB%, 1.78 HR/9, 2.2 fWAR
• Player B: 26 GS, 12 QS, 8-6, 144.1 IP, 3.43 ERA, 3.63 xERA, 25.3% K%, 5.0% BB%, 1.37 HR/9, 2.4 fWAR

Player A is Joe Ryan, Player B is Bailey Ober. Now, again I ask, why is there a $90 difference between the two? In 2023, Ober had some innings limitations, which will no longer be in play this season. Ober has additionally shown a slight increase in fastball velocity this spring, and perhaps more importantly, a velocity increase to his slider, which is additionally getting more bite. If his slider has developed into a better putaway pitch, Ober should see an increase to his whiff and strikeout rates, which could thus catapult him a few tiers as far as best pitchers in the American League goes. After facing the Phillies in his most recent outing, Bryce Harper told the media “Good luck to everyone in the Central.” That is some high praise from one of the best hitters in the game. It’s clearly a longshot, but I have been high on Ober for quite some time, and 125/1 seems incredibly steep. 

NL Cy Young Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto +1200

Well, maybe we won’t consider this a longshot, but I do have a soft spot for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. If you’ve followed me over the last few years, you already know my love for the Nippon Professional League, and we’ve spent the last several years playing opposing team total unders when Yamamoto was on the bump for the Orix Buffaloes:

Obviously there is no MLB data to use when handicapping Yamamoto’s Cy Young chances, but if we look at the projections by our own Vlad Sedler, Yamamoto is projected to finish 2024 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 14 wins and 9.7 K/9 in 176 innings. You may see those projections and think “he’s overrated, let’s see how he does against an actual offense.” Let me just say, in watching his outings in Japan over the years, Yamamoto will be the greatest foreign pitcher to make his way to Major League Baseball of all time. I am obviously fully aware of how good Shohei Ohtani is when fully healthy. Yamamoto sits around 95 MPH with his fastball, but it’s his curveball and splitter that will generate swings-and-misses. Often times, his splitter is simply unhittable:

As I alluded to earlier, fading Strider is risky, but if there is anyone who can possess a quality ERA, with the wins and innings to back it up, I see Yamamoto being one of the best candidates to do so (with Zack Wheeler being another potential threat).