NBA Best Bets of the Day (3/25)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The college kids are on break, but fear not, there is plenty of basketball to watch thanks to the professionals. There are 11 games Monday, but not many that are expected to be close.

The average spread for the day’s games currently sits at 11 points, which is the highest average spread per game we’ve had on any day this season. The previous high was an average spread of 10.6 last Wednesday. Admittedly, I’m not surprised to see this at the end of the season when bad teams are tanking or letting their injured stars rest as long as possible while good teams are pressing hard to win as many games as possible.

The gap between the winners and losers has never been bigger, but should it be this large? Let’s try to answer that by going through each matchup and see which favorites can cover a big spread or which underdogs are getting too many points. Of course, since it’s Monday you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions or suggestions, please leave them in the comment section of that video and I’ll get back to you ASAP. 

NBA Best Bets for Monday

Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets

Current Line – Rockets -12.5, 224.5
My Projection – Rockets 122, Trail Blazers 106
Key Injuries – Alperen Sengun, Cam Whitmore, Jabari Smith and Malcolm Brogdon are out. Jerami Grant is doubtful. Deandre Ayton and Anfernee Simons are questionable. 

The Blazers are mess. They have been a bad team all season, but not bad enough to have one of the worst three records in the league and the best odds possible for the No. 1 draft pick. They are using the end of the season to get their rookies as much playing time as possible, but those minutes are played with other rookies instead of veteran players who can teach them how to play NBA basketball. Malcolm Brogdon wasn’t traded at the deadline because he was expected to be the leader of this team, but he’s been out for weeks and likely won’t play the rest of the season. That creates a leadership vacuum and leaves Portland without one of their best shooters. Their best shooter, Simons, might miss the game tonight and another good shooter, Jerami Grant, is likely to miss the game as well. That means the Blazers will have to rely on inexperienced players to find a way to score points on offense with little to no space to operate. Now, I do expect them to give their best effort but trying hard isn’t enough to score points or keep games close in the NBA.

The Rockets are surging. They lost Alperen Sengun, who was the hub of their offense to injury and although many, including me, expected them to struggle to score, they’ve found a way to get points. Houston is playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA since the All-Star break and are averaging over 125 points per game during their current eight-game win streak. I’d rather they have Jabari Smith, who is suspended, but I still think they will win this game by margin and score points in bunches again. Their best offensive player during this stretch, Jalen Green, will be on the floor and likely to get even more usage without Smith. Houston might struggle without Smith against some teams, but not against these Trail Blazers. I show value on the Rockets spread and the total, but I think the best angle is their team total. 12.5 points is a lot to cover especially with the potential look ahead to a game with the Thunder in Oklahoma City Wednesday, and I can’t trust Portland to do their part to get this game over its total. Instead, I project the Rockets to score 122, 3-plus points less than their recent average, and well over their current team total which is as low as 118.5 at some points. In fact, I’ll even play a worse number and bet the Rockets team total to go over 119.5 points.

Bet

Houston Rockets Team Total Over 119.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Not For Noops

Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.

Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers -12, 206.5

One of the most important parts of using a model is knowing its strengths, weaknesses and when not to trust it. My projections have shown value on Charlotte for the past few weeks. The Hornets are just 2-7 against the spread in that time and have scored more than 100 points just three times in those nine games. My model loves what Charlotte can do defensively, but is clearly overestimating the offensive output of the team which only seems to come well after the spread is out of range. Well, here we are again. I make this game Cavaliers -8 with a total of 204, which would normally mean a bet, but I’m not betting on the Hornets for the rest of the season. I’ll go back when I have more time during the offseason to look more closely at why my model likes the Hornets more than the market. For the time being, I’m betting against Charlotte or not betting their games at all. The Cavaliers have lost three games in a row and should crush the Hornets and when they play again in Charlotte Wednesday, but I don’t see any value in laying this many points. Cleveland has struggled to score without Donovan Mitchell and will likely be happy just to win this game and not pushing to win by big margin. Not bets for me here.

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors +6.5, 219.5

This is surprisingly a candidate for worst game of the season. Coming into the season, neither team was expected to be very good, but they were both expected to compete for a spot in the postseason. The Nets were 13-13 after losing in Utah Dec. 16, which was the last time they were a .500 or better team this season. The Raptors own their first game, which was the only time they had a winning record this season. Toronto can blame their performance on injuries and a light teardown of the roster before the trade deadline. They moved Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby and have all but one of their starting five players listed as out for this game. Brooklyn, however, has been healthy all season and is healthy here, but the team has generally looked disinterested in playing basketball. The Nets fired their head coach during the All-Star break because the locker room was unhappy, but there hasn’t been any better vibes with the interim coach. Looking at the current odds, I’m pretty sure the Nets shouldn’t be 6.5-point favorites over anyone, especially on the road, but I’m also pretty sure the Raptors shouldn’t be as little as 6.5-point underdogs even at home against any NBA team. Honestly, the league should just cancel this game and give both teams a loss. That’s probably not going to happen, but let’s just pretend this game doesn’t exist.

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks -17, 211.5

Well, I wrote a nice, long paragraph about how I was going to back the Pistons of Cade Cunningham can play, but he was just announced to be out, which means I had to delete that and write this. This is now a game with two terrible options. You can lay 17 points with the Knicks who have slowed their pace to a crawl and been happy to win games even if it’s just by a few points. The other option is to take 17 points, which is a lot in a game with a total of 210, with the team that has the worst record in the NBA and had to play yesterday. The Knicks had dominated teams like this early in the season, but have struggled to cover spreads without Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson who are all out for this contest. I’m not watching, thinking about, or betting this game even though it is somehow not the worst of the night.

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks +10.5, 225

This game begins a scheduling anomaly. The Celtics will play the Hawks here and in their next game Thursday, but the Hawks do not play the Celtics twice in a row. Atlanta hosts the Portland Trail Blazers in between matchups against Boston. The Celtics are the far superior team, but they have finally started to rest their stars. Jrue Holiday is out and Derrick White is listed as questionable. I doubt Boston will rest White and play without either of their lead guards, but if they do rest him then this might be a good spot to back the Hawks. Admittedly, the idea of backing Atlanta who is the worst team against the spread by a big margin, but 12 points is too many. Keep an eye on the #nba-plays channel of the FTN Bets Discord. I’ll put any bets I do place on this game in there once I know who is actually playing for Boston.

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls -12.5, 226.5

So, do you want to lay more than 12 points with the Bulls team playing a few guys who are less than 100%? If not, do you want to take less than 13 points with a Washington team that is starting Jordan Poole, Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert, Marvin Bagley and someone named “Jared Butler” on the road? Those are two just awful options. This game should be ugly. The Bulls have done well against bad teams like this at home, but this is the first time they have been favored by double digits all season. At the same time, the Wizards have been good on the road with a record of 19-15-3 against the spread, but that lineup is terrible. My projections are close to the market, which is great news because it’s just another reason not to bet this game which is exactly my plan.

Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs +12.5, 234.5

Similar to the Pistons, I was all ready to back the Spurs if Victor Wembanyama can play. Fortunately, I didn’t write that preview … because unfortunately, Wembanyama was just announced to be out for this contest. Without him, the San Antonio has one of the worst rosters in the league and will not be starting the best, second-best or even third-best player in this game. I continue to think the Suns are the most overrated team in the NBA, but they beat the Spurs by 25 in San Antonio Saturday and could easily do just the same here. It’s a tough number to make, but I have this Phoenix -13 with a total of 235 based on who is expected to play now. That’s close to the market and I can’t see an attackable edge in the matchup, so I’ll pass on this game.

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz +8.5, 237

This is another game where we have to wait on the status of a key player before we make a bet. Lauri Markkanen, Utah’s best player, is listed as questionable. If he can play, I make this game Jazz +4, which means +8.5 would be a nice bet on Utah. Of course, the spread will move once we know his official status, but I think it will still bettable. The Mavericks have won seven of their last eight games including a 15 points victory over the Jazz in Dallas on Thursday, but they are struggling on defense. There is nothing worse for a bad defense than a game in Utah played at altitude against a Jazz team that likes to push pace and shoot as many three-pointers as they can. If Markkanen can play, Utah will have enough talent to score a lot of points tonight and cover the spread even if they lose. Keep an eye on the Discord. I’ll likely bet on the Jazz spread and a Jazz team total over if Utah’s best player will be on the floor. Until then, I’ve got nothing.

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets -15.5, 213

The Nuggets have finally taken over the top spot in the Western Conference standings but are still taking a cautious approach with their players. They rested Nikola Jokic and Jamaal Murray in Portland on Saturday. Denver won the game, but by just three points. Was that close enough to scare them into playing everyone against another bad team tonight? Even if it didn’t, I would be surprised if they deprived the home fans of a chance to see Jokic like they expected when they bought their tickets. Murray has rested some home games and they’ve been more cautious with him, but I do think Jokic will play. If that’s the case, the Nuggets should win easily, but this might be too many points for them to cover. Denver wins often, but rarely by such a big margin. They are just 6-9-1 against the spread this season when favored by 10-plus points. I show some value on the Grizzlies, but that is dependent on the status of Desmond Bane who is listed as questionable. If Bane can play, there’s enough NBA level talent in the Memphis locker room for them to cover a spread this large and push the total over 214 points. Once he’s announced in, I’ll likely bet on the Grizzlies. Check the Discord to see if/when I make that bet later today.

Philadelphia 76ers at Sacramento Kings -9.5, 222

The 76ers surprised the Clippers winning as a +320 underdog Sunday. Philadelphia played their best game in weeks but needed Tyrese Maxey to play 44 minutes and Tobias Harris to play 38 minutes. I expect Harris to rest and wouldn’t be surprised if Maxey rests as well. It’s almost impossible to trust Philadelphia even with almost 10 points, but this is a potential down spot for Sacramento. The Kings have the same record as the Dallas Mavericks and both are just half a game behind the Phoenix Suns for the 6 seed in the Western Conference. The Mavericks will play in Sacramento against the Kings Tuesday and Friday night. Those are two of the most important games of the schedule all year for the Kings. Sacramento can beat Philadelphia without their best effort and could possibly sleepwalk through this game. That leaves the door wide open for the 76ers to cover this spread backdoor. I make this game Kings -11 with a total of 224 which are some edges, but too small to bet even with all the uncertainty for both teams. I’ll pass on this game. 

Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Clippers -6, 233.5

This is a bad schedule spot for both teams. The Pacers played the Lakers Sunday night in Los Angeles and won in a game with a pace of 109, the seventh-highest pace of any game this season. The Clippers played in Los Angeles just before that game and lost as big favorites to the Philadelphia 76ers. Kawhi Leonard played 31 minutes and Paul George and James Harden played 34 minutes each. Both teams are still winning games but playing well below their peaks from earlier in the season. We don’t have an official injury report for either team and I’m worried the Clippers or even the Pacers might rest some key players. If everyone plays, I make this game Clippers -7 with a total of 220 which is close to what the odds are right now. I’ll keep an eye on the injury report and post any bets I make later in the Discord, but I don’t expect to have any wagers in this game.