I know, I know - this isn’t a parlay, so where’s the emphasis on math? Well, this is about the line. DraftKings is slow to react to the news that Rob Gronkowski is doubtful. They’ve left +400 hanging, while FanDuel has moved a Howard TD to +270. This is the difference between an implied 20% chance and an implied 27% chance. In other words, DK’s odds are for an event with implied odds 35% higher than FD’s line suggests.
Miles Sanders OVER 79.5 rushing yards & an anytime TD
Nick Sirianni has taken heat for giving Sanders just two rushing attempts in Week 3. Look for that to change as the Eagles go into a matchup with the Chiefs, who have had the worst run defense in the NFL over the last two years.
So far this season, the Kansas City defense is:
29th in adjusted line yards
29th in power success rate
27th in open field yards
30th in second level yards
When Sanders gets the ball, good things happen:
Expect a plus performance from Sanders on Sunday.
Dak Prescott 299.5+ passing yards, Amari Cooper 69.5+ receiving yards, & CeeDee Lamb 69.5+ receiving yards
“We have to get Robby going as an offense,” Rhule firmly stated. “Against the Saints, we kinda had a couple deep shots to him we didn’t quite connect on. If you watch the tape last night, he’s open quite a bit and the ball’s not getting to him. And the ball’s spread around to a lot of different people.”
The squeaky wheel narrative boosts the chances of Anderson catching 5+ passes, but the key to this bet is Anderson’s increased aDOT this season. After posting a surprisingly low aDOT of 10.5 yards a season ago, Anderson is all the way up to 17.7 yards with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Consequently, his 11.5 yards per reception a year ago has jumped to 20.5 so far this year.
Should Anderson catch 5 passes, he’d only need 14 yards per reception to get to 70. Given his elevated aDOT, that should be quite easy.