Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day, our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Anthony Amico.
Prop: Houston Astros to win AL West (+100, FanDuel)
The Astros have been one of the dominant teams in baseball of the last few seasons, but they have seen a huge decline in odds since the start of 2020. There is no better example of this than their odds to win the division, which currently sit at even money. Here’s why you need to capitalize on this opportunity before it is too late:
- While Houston is currently tied for first with the Athletics, they have been the far superior hitting team to open the year. The Astros have a .335-to-.268 edge in wOBA and a .150-to-.117 advantage in ISO.
- Oakland’s edge right now lies in pitching, but the advanced metrics have the two teams fairly close. Houston only trails them in xFIP by 0.33 and by 0.55 in SIERA. The Astros originally were thought to have lost Justin Verlander for the season to an arm issue, but he and the team are claiming it is instead a two-week injury. He is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
- All of this culminates in Houston having better division odds than is currently being presented. According to FanGraphs’ projected playoff odds, the Astros are 56.3% to win the division, and 59.8% based on year to date stats. Those percentages should result in true odds of -129 and -149, respectively.
It’s typically very difficult to find favorable odds on preeminent teams, but the Verlander injury and some bad luck for Houston to open up the year have provided a unique value opportunity. The shortened season will allow for a little more variance than we would typically see over a 162-game season, but even odds on the Astros is still a price worth attacking in the MLB futures market.