5 must-know stats for betting Week 15

Every week during the NFL season, I’ll be diving into five must know stats for fantasy football to help pull back the curtain in various ways. Highlighting game scripts, matchups, defensive plans of attack, and much more, this article will help you set your lineups in daily fantasy and your season-long leagues.

1. The Tennessee Titans are ranked 32nd and 24th in DVOA against the tight end position and running back positions, respectively.

Regardless of who is under center this week for Detroit, T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift are set to smash this week. Since Week 9, Tennessee has allowed Trey Burton , Jimmy Graham and Mark Andrews to surpass 42 yards receiving and get into the end zone. Hockenson ranks ninth in red-zone targets (15) and seventh in targets inside the 10-yard line (9). If Chase Daniel is under center, don’t look for him to go away from Hockenson. In Daniel’s limited action (19 pass attempts), he’s targeted Hockenson the most on the team (26.3%).

When Daniel isn’t locking onto Hockenson, he’ll be checking it down to Swift. In his return to action last week, Swift led the team in running back routes (22), far surpassing Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson (9 each). Peering back through Daniel’s game logs, he’s a running back checkdown artist. Since 2018, Daniel has targeted running backs on an astounding 41.3% of his throws (133 pass attempts). Swift can crush a Tennessee pass defense that’s tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs (5).

2. Among 40 quarterbacks with 10 or more deep attempts, Kyler Murray ranks third with a 128.2 deep passer rating.

Over the last five games, opposing passers have completed 61.9% of their deep passes with a 3:0 touchdown:interception ratio and 145.3 passer rating. Philadelphia is appropriately ranked 32nd in DVOA versus deep passing. DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk have combined for 58.6% of Murray’s deep passing target volume. The next closest receiver in Andy Isabella , who was a healthy scratch last week. Murray’s deep shots will be in the direction of Hopkins and Kirk against an injury-depleted secondary. Murray is primed for a major bounceback this week against a defense that has also allowed the most rushing yards to quarterbacks (364).

3. Since Week 4, the Jacksonville defense ranks bottom five in explosive run (28th) and explosive pass (30th) allowed.

I know it doesn’t come as a shock that the Jaguars’ defense has been horrendous, but I think we need to come to grips with just how bad. Over their last three games, Jacksonville is ranked 29th in yards per carry (5.5) and yards per attempt (7.6) allowed. Unless Gardner Minshew mustache mania can learn cornerback or bulk up 100 pounds to stop the run, this defense doesn’t have a chance against Lamar Jackson and company. While Jackson could be without Marquise Brown , Miles Boykin and the rarely utilized James Proche , he’ll still have big-play stalwart Mark Andrews . Andrews has seen 22% of Jackson’s deep targets securing four of his six catchable targets with two scores. The only team to allow more touchdowns to tight ends than the Jaguars (10) are the New York Jets.

4. Alvin Kamara ranks 10th in rush attempts (10.3) and eighth in receptions (5.5) per broken tackle.

Yes, I know, shocking, Kamara breaks tackles, but the revelation here is that Kansas City has struggled to tackle at points this year. The Chiefs’ defense ranks ninth in missed tackles (96). Kansas City struggles to defend running backs on both the ground and through the air. This defense ranks 31st in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards (1,337) and third-most receiving yards (623) to opposing running backs. Kamara can smash this week, especially if the Saints find themselves in catch up mode.

5. Since Week 7, Kendall Fuller has allowed the most receiving touchdowns (5) and seen the 10th-most targets (44) in coverage.

Fuller better say his prayers this week as he’s going to match up against DK Metcalf . The lab-made Metcalf will run approximately 55% of his routes on Fuller’s side. Fuller plays RCB on 93% of his snaps, so if the Seahawks want to pick on this matchup much like they did Darius Slay , it won’t be difficult. Washington is not a great offensive football team, but as long as they can put up more of a fight than the New York Jets, Metcalf will play a full game.

5 must-know stats for betting Week 15

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