We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 38 in Las Vegas. There are a couple spots that I feel good about in the props market but be sure to check out the rest of the FTN crew’s bets FTN Bets Tracker in case we add anything prior to fight night.
As always, I will give the bets that I have placed below based on where I see the most value in the betting odds and how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA betting Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Here is a look at my favorite betting props for this weekend’s UFC Vegas 38 betting card.
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Gaetano Pirrello fight does NOT start Round 3
Just two of Pirrello’s 21 career fights have reached the final round. He is typically a “kill or be killed” style of fighter and is facing Douglas Silva de Andrade, who has 19 career knockouts and will hold a submission grappling advantage as well if the fight were to hit the mat. I would be surprised to see this reach the final round and we are getting a good number.
Jamie Mullarkey to win by KO/TKO
Mullarkey is coming off a first-round knockout victory, and his last five wins have all come by knockout. Now he is facing a power punching boxer in Devonte Smith who’s only two career losses have come by knockout. Mullarkey has upside to land something big on the feet or land takedowns and ground and pound TKO Smith who has questionable cardio and durability.
Kyle Daukaus to win by points
I love Kevin Holland as much as the next guy, but the dude simply cannot stop the takedowns. Despite Holland likely having a noticeable advantage in the striking department, I expect Daukaus to land multiple takedowns and bank control time similar to Holland’s last few opponents. This is going to come down to if the judges favor damage or dominant position and I’ll gladly hold a +220 ticket on the fighter who is likely to spend the majority of time in dominant position.