We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 40 in Las Vegas. There are a couple spots that I feel good about in the props market, but be sure to check out the rest of the FTN crew’s bets FTN Bets Tracker in case we add anything prior to fight night.
As always, I will give the bets that I have placed below based on where I see the most value in the betting odds and how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA betting Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Here is a look at my favorite betting props for this weekend’s UFC Vegas 40 betting card.
Jim Miller to win by submission
Jim Miller to win by submission in Round 1
(Win by submission +290, in Round 1 +700, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miller typically always takes care of business when he faces a step down in competition, and that is exactly what he is getting here. He is going to have a significant wrestling and grappling advantage over Erick Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been taken down repeatedly on the regional scene and has two losses by first-round submission. Of Miller’s 32 career wins, 18 have come by submission and 13 of those inside the first round including his last four victories.
Brandon Davis to win by decision
Davis is making his return to the UFC after going on a four-fight win streak on the regional scene. His opponent, Danaa Batgerel, will have a power advantage on the feet, but Davis has historically been very durable and never been knocked out. He is going to have a wrestling and grappling advantage and this fight is favored to hit the scorecards. I expect him to be competitive on the feet and if he can land takedowns then he should look like the better minute winner.
Jordan Wright vs. Julian Marquez fight does NOT start Round 3
This number is simply too short not to attack. Wright has never reached Round 3 in 13 career fights. On the flip side, all of Marquez’ victories have come inside the distance and I expect these two to go to war right from the opening bell. Both guys have finishing potential and the stylistic matchup likely leads to an early finish. I would be shocked to see this start Round 3.