The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (6/1)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Rays (-124), Yankees (+106)
Total: 8.0 runs
Tyler Glasnow (R) vs. Domingo Germán (R)

Since May 12, the Rays have lost only a single game — what an impressive run to move from the bottom of the AL East to the top of the division. Meanwhile, the Yankees have lost six of seven and have tallied only 13 runs in six games. 

Best bets: The UNDER. Until New York starts putting runs on the board, pound this — it’s not as if the Rays are an elite offense either, striking out at an absurd clip (27.5%) with only a .231 team batting average.

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles

Twins (-178), Orioles (+150)
Total: 9.5 runs
Michael Pineda (R) vs. Bruce Zimmermann (L)

Southpaw Bruce Zimmermann has been thrust into a starting rotation role, but it hasn’t been with great success — his 5.15 ERA is actually being outpaced by a 5.45 FIP this season. Why? He doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts (18.6%), and his 39.7% ground-ball rate does not play well in a hitter-friendly environment like Camden Yards.

Best bets: Monday was a bit of a surprise — this was a well-pitched ballgame, tied 1-1 headed to extra innings. I don’t anticipate that happening again. For a safer bet, focus on the Twins to cover or a F5 bet.

Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays

Marlins (+132), Blue Jays (-156)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sandy Alcantara (R) vs. Robbie Ray (L)

Is this the season that Robbie Ray finally turns some things around? While the southpaw, who has traditionally struggled with control and command, has improved his first-pitch strike rate (a career best 64.0%), there’s some warning signs here, too. He’s getting hit really hard (2.42 HR/9), and the BABIP is an unsustainably low .254. Combine that with Sandy Alcantara, and we should have some runs scored by these offenses tonight in spades.

Best bets: The OVER. Dunedin was great to the Blue Jays, but with the calendar turned to June, don’t pretend like Sahlen Field in Buffalo won’t be kind, either. 

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds

Phillies (-108), Reds (-108)
Total: 7.5 runs
Aaron Nola (R) vs. Sonny Gray (R) 

Arguably the best pitching matchup of the day is in Cincinnati, where Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray square off in a battle of aces. Nola’s traditional metrics perhaps don’t showcase him as an ace — his 3.72 ERA is solid, but his 2.97 FIP (driven by a 28.1% strikeout rate) and excellent control has bolstered those numbers. After returning from a groin injury, Sonny Gray has been outstanding as of late as well.

Best bets: If this weren’t in Cincinnati, I would be slamming the UNDER here. The Phillies, without mainstays Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius, are really struggling at the plate. Cincinnati scares me though, so perhaps consider a strikeout prop for these hurlers (anything 6.5 or less).

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Nationals (+118), Braves (-138)
Total: 8.5 runs
Stephen Strasburg (R) vs. Max Fried (L)

Stephen Strasburg was a guy I didn’t roster a ton of in season-long formats, and the early results have been a bit up-and-down, to say the least. Over 20.1 IP, he’s logged a 4.43 ERA and 5.63 FIP — the reduced strikeout rate (22.7%) and 13.6% walk rate present some specific risk that has not been great. Meanwhile, Max Fried has been the opposite since returning from injury — he’s been outstanding multiple turns in a row, including allowing only one earned run in each of his last four outings.

Best bets: I love a Braves F5 bet here — and if you want to get spicy, think about a same-game parlay over at FanDuel.

Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers

Tigers (+144), Brewers (-172)
Total: 7.5 runs
Matthew Boyd (L) vs. Eric Lauer (L)

The real question on everyone’s minds is — can Eric Lauer go yard in two consecutive starts? All jokes aside, these offenses are not good. At all. These are two of the four worst offenses in terms of team wOBA (.289 and .290, respectively), even without their pitcher hitting home runs. With two mediocre starters on the board, you’d imagine that this over/under would be higher, but that’s how mediocre these attacks are.

Best bets: This game could go a ton of ways — what’s wild is it would seem that runs could come in droves, but these teams just cannot hit. Keston Hiura looks absolutely lost at the plate. I am likely firing in some bets on the strikeout overs hitting here.

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

Padres (-116), Cubs (-102)
Total: 7.5 runs
Ryan Weathers (L) vs. Kyle Hendricks (R)

If there is one player unhappy to see the calendar turn to the month of June, it’s Kyle Hendricks. In five May starts (four wins), Hendricks recorded a 2.18 ERA over 34.2 IP — a far cry from the 4.63 season-long ERA mark he’s posted. That’s how rough the first month was. But these two offenses are fantastic — both rank in the top half of the league in team wOBA, and are both at the top of the charts in terms of league walk rate, posting rates over 9.0%.

Best bets: The wind has flipped since Monday and is blowing in. This is a tough one to peg — probably a stay away.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals

Pirates (+180), Royals (-215)
Total: 8.5 runs
Wil Crowe (R) vs. Brady Singer (R)

There’s a high over/under here set for reason — both pitchers have really struggled as of late. Wil Crowe has absolutely been bombed in his last three starts, allowing 10 earned runs over his last three starts combined. That does not match well with Brady Singer, who has a 6.61 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last month. 

Best bets: This one is easy — slam the OVER in this bet. Two struggling hurlers combined with an achievable over/under of 8.5 runs seems ripe for the picking.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

Red Sox (+106), Astros (-124)
Total: 9.0 runs
Garrett Richards (R) vs. Luis García (R)

We said this Monday, and it definitely came true — if there’s one time I don’t want to face right now as an opposing pitcher, it’s the Houston Astros. They crushed the over by themselves in slamming the Red Sox in the opener. They rank 11th in team wOBA (.312) over the last 14 days, and they still remain nearly impossible to strike out (15.4% strikeout rate). It could be a long day.

Best bets: I’m taking the OVER again here. Let’s hope the Red Sox can provide some punch at the dish. 

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies

Rangers (+100), Rockies (-128)
Total: 9.5 runs
Dane Dunning (R) vs. Germán Márquez (R)

I really don’t want to buy back in here, but I may be forced to — I get it. Germán Márquez has been truly horrible at home, but he’s been really good over the last two weeks — over 13 innings pitched, he’s logged a sub-1.00 ERA and WHIP. Can we trust an under here?

Best bets: The UNDER is far too risky for my blood — but I do like a Rockies F5 bet. Márquez seems to have turned a corner recently and I think the Rockies bats continue a strong run. 

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks

Mets (-112), Diamondbacks (-114)
Total: 8.5 runs
Marcus Stroman (R) vs. Caleb Smith (L)

With the crazy rash of injuries the Mets have suffered, they are still leading the division, and by the widest margin in all of baseball (tied with the White Sox). Now, with a few sluggers back in the mix, the pitching continues to fire on all cylinders, and Tuesday is Marcus Stroman’s turn. He’s fired his way to a 2.65 ERA over 59.2 IP this season, buoyed by a whopping 54.2% ground-ball rate. 

Best bets: Some late runs ruined Monday’s UNDER, and I like the OVER here. With Pete Alonso and other bats back, I like the Mets to stay atop the NL East. 

Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants

Angels (+134), Giants (-158)
Total: 7.0 runs
Andrew Heaney (L) vs. Alex Wood (L)

While there are some star-studded matchups on the slate, this could be one of the best matchups Tuesday has to offer. Heaney has logged 55 strikeouts in 44.2 IP despite a bit of an ugly 5.23 ERA. In a bit of a surprise, over 48 IP, the lefty has recorded a 2.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this year.

Best bets: If the over/under stays at 7.0 runs, I like the OVER here. Both starters have gotten hit around a little bit recently and the Giants (19.4% strikeout rate) have been tough in this split in 2021.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners

Athletics (-158), Mariners (+132)
Total: 7.5 runs
Chris Bassitt (R) vs. Marco Gonzales (L)

This is a pretty one-sided matchup. Chris Bassitt has been brilliant this season, and he’s coming off a two-hit shutout against the Angeles a week ago, whiffing nine hitters. Meanwhile, Marco Gonzales was downright putrid prior to hitting the IL. Jarred Kelenic (two walks, one steal) is showing signs of life recently, but this is still a bad offense.

Best bets: I don’t like any pitcher coming off an injury, and I certainly don’t like it against the 12th-best offense in MLB (.312 wOBA). I am taking an Oakland F5 bet here.

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

Cardinals (+168), Dodgers (-200)
Total: 8.5 runs
John Gant (R) vs. David Price (L)

Don’t get too fooled with David Price listed as the starter — he’s yet to pitch more than three innings in any singular start this season. Meanwhile, John Gant is trying to achieve one of baseball’s most interesting statistical quandaries — can he have a higher WHIP than ERA? Gant has posted a 1.81 ERA and 1.57 WHIP due to the many walks he’s recorded this year, and I think he gets into trouble.

Best bets: I love a same game parlay here — the Dodgers moneyline, a F5 bet, and even the over. Mookie Betts was in good form Monday and should continue his strong run of play.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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